40 WORLD-POWER AND EVOLUTION 



that curve H represents the total effect that good health may be 

 expected to have upon the country, although some effects come 

 sooner and others later. The faithfulness with which children 

 attend school; the volume of bank clearings in New York City; 

 the general level of prices of all commodities; the size of the 

 deposits in national banks ; and the number of immigrants reach- 

 ing our shores ; — these are the elements which have been combined 

 to represent the general prosperity of the United States. 



Below the curve of prosperity the curve of health has been 

 repeated and labelled J. This time, however, it is smoothed by the 



a+2b+c 

 formula =b. This merely means that the health of a 



single year cannot be expected to produce all the observed effects. 

 Other years play their part. Therefore in any given year, such 

 as b in the equation, instead of reckoning the health of that year 

 alone, I have averaged its health with that of the preceding 

 year (a) and the succeeding year (c). Double weight, however, 

 has been given to the year in question. Thus curve J represents 

 the effect that the weather, acting through health, might be 

 expected to have upon the general prosperity of the next four 

 or five years. The actual effect is shown in curve H. 



The resemblance of curves H and J is so pronounced that it 

 scarcely needs emphasis. Remember that both are based upon 

 the fullest modern statistics. In no case has any change been 

 made in the statistics except to eliminate the features due simply 

 to normal growth. By thus eliminating the tendency for bank 

 deposits, for example, to increase from decade to decade, however, 

 we cannot possibly add anything to a curve. We simply prevent 

 the minor fluctuations from being concealed by the fact that the 

 total volume of deposits is now much greater than in 1870 because 

 the country has grown. I emphasize this point because one reason 

 why people have not seen the relationships here pointed out is that 

 they have looked at the growth of business, the growth in immigra- 

 tion and so forth, and have not realized that in 1870 a change of 



