42 



WORLD-POWER AND EVOLUTION 



are taken from Moore's interesting little book on "Economic 

 Cycles." This curve has been smoothed in the way employed for 

 curve J above it. The unsmoothed curve is compared with the 

 health curve in Figure 5. When the smoothed crop curve is com- 



+10% c 



-10% - 



Yield per Acre of 

 9 Chief Crops 

 (Secular trend 

 eliminated) 



■10% 



Health (Deaths 

 inverted) 



+10% 



. . . .!« . «. I . . . >< >. . .1 . . . , I « «,. I . . . . I «. .. 



1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 



Figure 5. Crops and Health in the United States 



pared with the curve of prosperity, H, a certain resemblance is 

 indeed apparent. But look at the crop minimum in 1887, the 

 maximum in 1891, the minimum in 1901, and the maximum in 

 1905. These features by no means accord with the conditions of 

 prosperity. Certainly the crops must have an important effect 

 upon prosperity. When crops and health are both favorable, as 

 they were to a notable degree about 1878 and 1898, and to a less 

 degree in 1884, prosperity is doubtless much enhanced. When 

 crops and health act in opposite directions, however, there can be 

 no question as to which has the greater effect upon business. The 

 prosperity curve follows the health curve with no apparent regard 

 for the crops. | Contrary as it seems to our established convic- 

 tions, there appears to be no way of avoiding the conclusion 

 that economic cycles of adversity and prosperity in the United 

 States depend upon health far more than upon any other factor. 

 And health depends largely upon the weather. I 



