BUSINESS CYCLES ^9 



occurred a year before the absolute minimum of health. Hence, 

 since the curves are drawn with the imports and exports shoved 

 two years to the left, there does not appear to be much agreement. 

 The health maximum of 1887-1888, however, is faithfully reflected 

 in both of the business curves. So, too, is the minimum of 1893, 

 which is delayed two years in imports and one year in exports. 

 In all three curves the minor maximum of 1891 is apparent, 

 although it is insignificant in the line for imports. Next comes the 

 little maximum of 1894, which is evident in the exports but not 

 in the imports. The general high level of health from 1894 to 

 1898 has its counterpart in an increase of both imports and 

 exports reaching a maximum in 1900, which appears in Figure 6 

 as 1898. Then comes a rapid drop in all the curves. Taking the 

 curves as a whole we may say that up to 1900 (or 1902 in the 

 business curves) the course of health is closely followed by that 

 of business, especially in the imports, which seem to be an excellent 

 measure of general prosperity. After 1900, however, the other 

 curves appear to have nothing to do with that of health. That 

 was the time when the German imperial policy began to be 

 effective. German business was not allowed to pursue its natural 

 course as hitherto. It was officially boosted, guided, and, if need 

 be, chastised. Notice the unnatural steadiness with which the 

 imports increased from 1902 to 1907 (1900 to 1905 according 

 to the health dates). The sudden collapse in 1907 may perhaps 

 have had something to do with the American panic. Then once 

 more the government's steady boosting began to have effect. 



From this brief survey of European countries we conclude that 

 in Europe as well as in America health has much to do with eco- 

 nomic cycles. In countries like England and France the mildness 

 of both the summers and winters causes the variations in nervous 

 activity to be so slight that their effect is concealed by other 

 influences such as the commerce and foreign relations of England 

 and the thrift of France together with her lack of an expansive 

 labor supply. Yet when further analysis is possible, even these 



