WAR DECLARED. 387 



body is asking everybody else. There are too many 

 unknown quantities to tempt any one to prophesy, 

 and " positiveness in such matters," as Captain 

 Mahan would say, "is the doubtful privilege of the 

 doctrinaire, and commonly unfortunate in the result." 

 There are, however, a few points which, being borne 

 in mind by any one attempting to form a judgment, 

 may be of help in assisting towards arriving at a 

 reasonable conclusion. 



There is the extraordinary contempt which was at 

 the outset displayed by Russia for the opposition of 

 Japan. In face of persistent official denial, the fact 

 remains that on the historic Monday night of Feb- 

 ruary 8 (1904), while the ships of Admiral Togo, 

 which were destined to declare the fateful message 

 to the world in their own dramatic way, were steal- 

 ing up to their sleeping foe, the pleasure - loving 

 Russians, who, in view of the extremely critical 

 state of the relations between the two Powers, 

 should have been sleeping at their post on the 

 ships and in the forts, had betaken themselves 

 wholesale to a gala performance at a circus ! For 

 the first serious reverse which they sustained the 

 Russians have mainly themselves to thank. 



There are two points which must never be lost 

 sight of when considering the prospects of any Russ- 

 ian military undertaking — absence of organisation, 

 and ingrained official corruption. Those who know 

 Russia well will tell you that Russian organisation 

 is a hideous travesty of the word. To quote a single 

 example of Russian efficiency, Sir Robert Hart, when 

 discussing the merits of the various units of the 

 mixed detachment that succeeded in making its way 

 to Peking immediately prior to the siege of 1900, 

 writes : "As for the Russians, they brought a thou- 



