ner in both the current and in future years. The absolute values of 

 prices and costs do increase but the various price schedules maintain 

 a similar relationship throughout the price projections. This relation- 

 ship between price schedules is an important assumption of the finan- 

 cial analysis in this study. As a result of this relationship, the projected 

 price schedules resulted in findings that are very similar to those that 

 would result from the use of the current year price schedule. However, 

 if the market demand or the technical processes change, a major altera- 

 tion in the market structure would occur and thus the relationship be- 

 tween price schedules would change. If such an alteration in the market 

 structure occurs, then a review of the whole situation will be necessary. 



The projected price levels for harvest cuts were obtained by a linear 

 regression analysis of white pine sawlog harvest prices for the past 30 

 years. These prices are shown in Table 3. They are quoted from the 

 sales experiences of county foresters and published in annual market 

 reports (5). War price controls were in effect during the years 1942, 

 1943, and 1944. Therefore, to obtain prices for these years, a straight 

 line trend was assumed between the years 1941 and 1945. The 1942, 

 1943, and 1944 prices were taken at the appropriate intervals along this 

 trend line. The resulting trend is shown in Graph 1. The slope is shown 

 to be 0.579 and the Y-intercept at the initial year, 1937, was 3.40. To 

 obtain the stumpage price "X years" from the initial year, multiply the 

 "X years" by .579 and add 3.40. This yields the stumpage price "X 

 years" from the initial year, i.e., in 1997 the theoretical harvest price 

 will be (60) (.579) + 3.4 or $38.14. 



The price index of white pine stumpage in New Hampshire (13) 

 has risen faster than the wholesale price index of all lumber. However, 

 since 1955 the stumpage price index shows a greater fluctuation and 



Table 3. History of White Pine Sawlog Prices 



Year 



Average 

 Price 



Year 



Average 

 Price 



1937 

 1938 

 1939 

 1940 

 1941 

 *1942 

 *1943 

 *1944 

 194r> 

 1946 

 1947 

 1948 

 1949 

 1950 

 1951 



4.00 



3.75 



4.00 



4.00 



3.90 



4.93 



5.95 



6.98 



8.00 



10.25 



9.75 



10:00 



11.25 



14.15 



14.15 



1952 

 1953 

 1954 

 1955 

 1956 

 1957 

 1958 

 1959 

 1960 

 1961 

 1962 

 1963 

 1964 

 1965 

 1966 



15.00 

 15.00 

 15.00 

 16.30 

 17.50 

 17.80 

 21.00 

 20.00 

 20.50 

 17.70 

 17.10 

 14.80 

 15.30 

 16.00 

 17.50 



* War price controls were in effect during these years. The prices shown are 

 taken from a straight line trend between the prices of 1941 and 1945. 



Source: Forest Market Reports. Cooperative Extension Service, UNH, Durham, 

 New Hampshire. 



