EXCURSIONS OF AN EVOLUTIONIST 



from history he constructs his theory of the 

 general course of social evolution, of the 

 changes which societies have undergone, or will 

 undergo, under given conditions. If his work 

 has been properly done, he can go so far as to 

 foretell what kind of result is likely to be pro- 

 duced by a given course of political action. But 

 when it comes to predicting the future of any 

 particular society for the next ten years, he is 

 sure to be foiled, through inability to take in 

 the infinitely complex conditions of the concrete 

 case. And in like manner, when he is called 

 upon to interpret the past history of society, he 

 cannot expect to do more than to render ex- 

 planations after the fact. In order to gain con- 

 trol, moreover, of all the special facts required 

 for the interpretation of each particular case, he 

 must take into account the personal idiosyn- 

 crasies of the great men by whom the concrete 

 course of history has been determined. For ex- 

 ample, given the political constitution of Rome 

 in the third century before Christ, and the trans- 

 formation of that constitution into an imperial 

 despotism can be shown to have been an inev- 

 itable consequence of the conquest of a large 

 number of surrounding nations by a society so 

 constituted. It was a consequence which not 

 even the practical genius of Caesar the great- 

 est, no doubt, that has ever been seen on the 

 earth could have possibly averted, had all its 

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