THE NEWS PRINT PAPER SITUATION 



147 



ment of a vast army of wage-earners and affects the 

 larger army of their dependents. In a nutshell, then, we 

 have it that one-fifth of all the manufacturing establish- 

 ments and one-sixth of all the wage-earners in Uncle 

 Sam's vast domain would be adversely affected by any 

 reduction in the supply of materials from the forests. 

 "What are you going to do about it ?" was the pertinent 

 and impertinent question of the small boy when rebuked 

 for pulling the plums out of the pudding. In the par- 

 ticular case of timber, the answer is more easily found. 

 Timber is one of the things God has provided for man- 



kind and made to grow on hillside and valley in plain 

 sight. It is a natural resource that is not hidden. It 

 can be seen and estimated. That is the answer. To 

 make an estimate will require time, money and an organi- 

 zation intelligently directed. Since the welfare of so 

 many wage-earners together with investments aggre-" 

 gating billions of dollars of capital, depend upon an 

 estimate being made despite the expense, I predict that 

 some day Congress, reflecting public sentiment, will re- 

 quire that a timber census be made, and that day should 

 not be far off. 



THE NEWS PRINT PAPER SITUATION 



BY R. S. KELLOGG 



THIS is most truly a Paper Age, and, in the United 

 States at least, a Newspaper Age. The consump- 

 tion of news print paper has gone far beyond the 

 limits that would once have been predicted by the most 

 enthusiastic advocate of the newspaper as a source of 

 popular information and education. In 1880 we were 

 able to get along with 3 pounds per capita of news print 

 paper. By 1894 our requirements had increased three- 

 fold, to 9 pounds, and 25 years later, or in 1919, the 

 consumption of news print paper per capita in the United 

 States was 33 pounds, or more than 10 times what it was 

 39 years earlier. 



Leaving all the other means of publicity out of the 

 question, the average circulation of the daily newspapers 

 in the United States is now some 27,000,000 copies, or one 

 for every family in the country, and a large proportion of 

 these papers are not small ones, either. There are some- 

 thing like 70 newspapers with a daily circulation of 

 100,000 copies or more each, and for the past year these 

 papers have averaged about 23 pages on week days, 

 while the number of pages in those publishing Sunday 

 editions has been over three times as great as in the 

 daily editions. 



The production of news print paper in the United 

 States and Canada is a common industry with common 

 markets. The total output last year was 2,183,000 tons, 

 and 90 per cent of this total is classified as standard news, 

 such as is used by the daily papers. In the form of 

 sheets last year's production of news print in North 

 America would cover 10,000,000 acres or belt the earth 

 50 miles wide. In the form of a standard 73-inch roll it 

 would unwind 13,000,000 miles, or little more than 7 

 years' output at the same rate would reach from the 

 earth to the sun. 



The annual increase in production figured on a com- 

 pound interest basis has averaged 6 per cent for the last 

 15 years. In 1904 the production in the United States, 

 in round numbers, was 913,000 tons, and practically 

 none in Canada. In 1913 the production in the United 

 States slightly passed 1,300,000 tons, and that in Canada 

 amounted to 350,000 tons. Since 1913 there has been 



little increase in the United States output, but a steadily 

 ascending production in Canada, which in 1919 passed 

 800,000 tons, while the production in the United States 

 amounted to 1,375,000 tons. 



For the last six months the newspapers and trade 

 journals have devoted much space to the discussion of a 

 so-called shortage in news print supply, but there has 

 been no shortage so far as production is concerned. It 

 has been due entirely to greatly increased consumption. 

 The mills have been producing more news print than 

 ever before in history, and the stringency in the market 

 has come about entirely through the efforts of the 

 publishers to use more paper than has been produced. 

 This, of course, has been caused by the tremendous 

 increase in advertising, while there has been little 

 decrease in circulation over the high levels reached 

 during the time of great demand for news during the 

 war. During the past few months the total stocks in 

 the hands of newspaper publishers or in transit to them 

 have averaged between 30 and 40 days' supply, as com- 

 pared with more than 60 days' supply during the summer 

 of 1918, when the war was nearing a climax. On the 

 other hand, mill stocks have been averaging only 3 or 4 

 days' production, thus showing the absolute necessity for 

 an unbroken flow of paper from mill to publisher. 



Notwithstanding an increase of 185,000 tons in news 

 print production in 1919 over 1918, new machines to 

 come into operation in 1920 will, if all goes well, turn 

 out nearly 90,000 tons of paper, while numerous other 

 new machines are scheduled for 1921. If plans now 

 actually under way are consummated, by this time in 

 1922 new machines and new plants not in existence in 



1919 will be in operation with a total capacity in excess 

 of 1,500 tons per day. This would seem to be ample to 

 take care of the requirements of the publishers, but to 

 predict consumption so far in advance is hazardous. 



Newspaper advertising in 1919 was about 40 per cent 

 more in volume than in 1918, and it is starting off in 



1920 some 40 per cent in excess of the amount during the 

 first part of 1919. Advertising experts insist that there 

 is a perfectly tremendous volume ahead. 



