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forces, our Allied forces in arms, the civilians of this country, 

 and civilians in Allied and liberated nations. All have been 

 promised tickets to our national barbecue. Neither is it pos- 

 sible to determine the losses due to poor distribution, waste, 

 black markets, government and private hoarding, or losses 

 at sea. Furthermore, it is impossible to anticipate how large 

 our food production will be and therefore how big a supply 

 there will be to divide. 



Ceiling prices, Lend-Lease, losses at sea, and our fighting 

 forces have been the major causes of the meat famine. Losses 

 at sea have been greater than the unsuspecting public as- 

 sumes. Insurance rates to Murmansk and the western ports 

 of England have been high and indicate that losses at sea 

 bulked large. 



With passing time, it will be possible to weigh more ac- 

 curately the factors causing our meat shortage. However, it 

 will be difficult to show that the shortage was due to the 

 scapegoats black markets, waste, poor distribution, and 

 private hoarding rather than to Lend-Lease, losses at sea, 

 and our fighting forces. War is the cause ; there is no disprov- 

 ing that fact. 



The Food Picture Will Change 



The first phase of the food shortage was a shortage of meat, 

 the most palatable of the protective foods. Eggs, which have 

 not been short and have been urged on the consumer as a 

 substitute for meat, may be scarce during the winter of 

 1943-4. There has been no shortage of energy foods, but one 

 may develop. 



The future of food is a highly complex problem of supplies, 

 kinds, choice, free prices, ceiling prices, food distribution, 

 food habits, food as a weapon of war, rationing, nutrition, 

 subsidies, black markets, inflation, and administrative action 

 further befogged by charge and counter-charge by spokes- 



