( 60 ) 



and improved cultural practices have not decreased the farm- 

 er's dependence on the weather; they have probably in- 

 creased it. Wet weather slows the man with the hoe, but it 

 stops the tractor. Modern farm animals, bred for high pro- 

 duction, probably respond more to violent changes in feed 

 and weather than did their thick-skinned ancestors. 



It is well understood that for one farmer, changes in the 

 weather can make tremendous changes in yields. It might 

 be thought that with six million farms scattered over forty- 

 eight states, these changes would offset one another and the 

 total food production of the nation would be relatively stable 

 from one year to another. Such is not the case; although 

 there is great variation in rainfall within small areas, this 

 variation does not cancel out to make a constant average. 

 Any particular year will have a general pattern over rather 

 wide areas as to temperature and rainfall. If it rains, it rains 

 upon the just and the unjust. In dry weather all signs of rain 

 fail. In any year the total food production of the nation may 

 vary as much as 15 to 25 per cent from the preceding years 

 with no change in the farmer's intentions to produce, as in- 

 dicated by acreage. During the drought of 1934, food pro- 

 duction declined 24 per cent. With the good weather of 1942, 

 food production increased 17 per cent. 



Long-range weather forecasting has been struggling to 

 become a science for hundreds of years. The possibilities of 

 development in this field are intriguing but still embryonic. 

 Cycles in the weather, permanent changes in temperature, 

 and the like make good subjects for discussion, but as yet 

 are not predictable. For all practical purposes, the astron- 

 omer who predicts next summer's weather by the sun spots 

 is in the same class with the local sage who predicts a bitter 

 winter by the thickness of a squirrel's fur. The two have 

 about equal chances of success in predicting the weather of 

 this and the next growing season. 



