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The overwhelming proportion of the total variability in 

 food production from year to year comes from changes in 

 the weather, and only a small proportion is due to changing 

 acreages, fluctuating supplies of labor, transportation dif- 

 ficulties, price changes, mistaken judgment, and the like. 

 We frankly acknowledge that we can do nothing about the 

 weather. To a limited extent, the other factors affecting crop 

 production are within our control. In our enthusiasm over a 

 small measure of success in controlling these, we sometimes 

 forget that by far the greatest factor affecting crop produc- 

 tion is completely beyond our control. 



Goals and Intentions Mean Nothing to the Weatherman 



There is a tremendous difference between the govern- 

 ment's goals, established during the winter, the farmers' in- 

 tentions to plant in the spring, and the final harvest the fol- 

 lowing fall. There is no truer saying than that hope springs 

 eternal in the spring. During the early spring, farmers have 

 high hopes. If the spring weather is favorable, the farmers 

 may plant as many acres as they intended. To achieve the 

 high hopes of the spring, however, there must be a proper 

 distribution of an adequate supply of rainfall during the 

 summer. 



In the spring of 1934 the farmers intended to plant 186 

 million acres, 2 but the weather was good and they planted 

 about 208 million acres. Thereafter the weatherman played 

 havoc with production. Crops were so poor that 22 per cent 

 of the crop acres 2 were abandoned and the yields of the 

 remaining acres were 19 per cent below normal. 3 As a result, 

 production was about 30 per cent below normal. 4 



In the spring of 1942 the farmers intended to plant about 

 217 million acres 2 and planted about 219 million. The 

 weather was good and the farmers planted more than they 



2 Based on 14 crops. B Based on 28 crops. 4 Based on 53 crops. 



