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operator during the growing season and therefore the har- 

 vested acreage and the yields per acre would be average or 



Based on this point of view, crop production may be 10 

 or 15 per cent less than the bumper crops of 1942, which 

 apparently have been the bench mark for our Lend- Lease 

 food policy and our other food commitments. 



Our program has been to expect a higher production than 

 will be realized. This is not only poor planning, but poor 

 psychology. It would be much better if the people were led 

 to expect little and be doubly thankful if they got more than 

 they expected. Winston Churchill 5 impressed this simple 

 principle on 46 million Englishmen when he told them: "I 

 have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears, and sweat." 



Outlook Is for Declining Production 



Among the many factors that affect crops, not one points 

 to materially higher production. 



There will be little expansion in the acreage of crops in 

 the next several years, with the possible exception of the 

 Great Plains, where the lifting of wheat restrictions may put 

 more acreage under the plow. 



There could, of course, be increases in food production 

 through shifts from extensive to intensive crops. For in- 

 stance, meadows may be plowed up and planted to beans. 

 Such practices would increase the production of food crops, 

 but increasing amounts of equipment and human labor 

 would be required, both of which are scarce in tune of war. 

 The fact that more intensive cultivation could be resorted 

 to is a guarantee against any over-all future shortage of food 

 in the United States, but it is not likely that such an intensi- 

 fication will occur quickly. 



Farm labor, machinery, fertilizer, spray materials, gaso- 



5 To the House of Commons, May 13, 1940. 



