INFLUENCE OF THE MOON. 



under the same circumstances, must have incompatible influences ; 

 if fair weather precede the phase, the supposed physical cause 

 must be such as to be capable of converting it into foul weather ; 

 and if foul weather precede the phase, the same cause must 

 convert it into fair weather. It will be admitted that it is 

 hard to imagine any physical agent whatever, which under 

 precisely the same circumstances, shall produce upon the same 

 body effects so opposite. 



But let us dismiss the theoretical view of the question, and 

 inquire as to the facts. Has it been found, as a matter of fact, 

 that the epochs which mark the principal phases of the moon 

 have been, in the majority of cases, attended with a change of 

 weather ? Before this question can be satisfactorily answered, 

 it will be indispensable that the meaning of the phrase, change of 

 weather, be distinctly understood. An observer who is pre- 

 disposed to a belief in the influence of the lunar phases, will 

 consider himself warranted in classing as a change of weather 

 every transition from a calm to a wind, whether feeble or 

 forcible every change from a clear and serene firmament to one 

 ever so little clouded from a firmament a little clouded to one 

 quite covered over. He will consider the change from a day 

 absolutely free from rain to one in which a few drops may chance 

 to fall, as well entitled to be recorded as a change of weather as 

 if the transition had been from a day absolutely fair to one of 

 incessant rain. On the other hand, a disbeliever in the lunar 

 influences will class all very slight changes as settled weather, 

 and will only register as changes those of a very decisive 

 character. These are difficulties hard to remove, but unless they 

 be removed, how is it possible to compare together, with any 

 probability of arriving at the truth, the records of different 

 observers ? What value or importance are we to attach to the 

 results of any such observations, unless the prejudices of the 

 observer are admitted into our estimate ? 



Toaldo has given the result of a comparison of observations 

 continued for forty-five vears at Padua, in which changes of 

 weather are recorded in juxta-position with the lunar phases. 

 Without detailing the particulars of these calculations, we may 

 state at once the following results of them. He found that for 

 every seven new moons the weather changed at six, and was 

 settled only at one ; for every six full moons, the weather 

 changed at five, and was settled at one ; for every three epochs 

 of the quarters, there were two changes of weather. 



He also examined the state of the weather in reference to the 

 moon's distance from the earth, which is subject to some 

 variation. The position of the moon when most distant from 



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