WEATHER PROGNOSTICS. 



the earth is called apogee, and her position when nearest is called 

 perigee. He found that of every six passages of the moon through 

 perigee there were five changes of weather ; and of every five 

 through apogee there were four changes of weather. It is clear 

 that if these results would bear the test of rigid examination, 

 they would be decisive in favour of the popular notion of the 

 lunar influence. But let us see in what manner Toaldo con- 

 ducted his inquiry. 



He was himself an avowed believer in the lunar influence, not 

 merely upon the atmosphere, but even on the state of organised 

 matter. In his memoir he has not informed us what atmo- 

 spherical changes he has taken as changes of weather ; and it is 

 fair to presume that the bias of his mind would lead him to class 

 the slightest vicissitudes under this head. But, further, Toaldo, 

 in recording the changes of weather coinciding with the epochs of 

 the phases, did not confine himself to changes which took place 

 upon the particular day of the phase. On the pretext that time 

 must be allowed for the physical cause to produce its effect, he 

 took the results of several days. At the new and full moon he 

 included in his enumeration all changes which took place two or 

 three days before or two or three days after the day of new or 

 full moon ; while for the quarters he only included the day 

 preceding and the day following the phases ; and for epochs not 

 coincident with the lunar phases, he only counted the changes of 

 weather which took place on the particular day in question. 



It appears, then, that by the changes coinciding with a new 

 and full moon recorded by Toaldo are understood any changes 

 occurring within the space of from four to six days ; for the 

 changes recorded at the quarters are to be understood those 

 which occurred within the space of three days ; and for those 

 not coinciding with the phases the changes which occurred 

 on a single day. It will not, we presume, require much 

 mathematical sagacity to perceive that the results of such an 

 inquiry must have been just what Toaldo found them to be ; and 

 that, if instead of taking the epochs of the lunar phases, he had 

 taken any other periods whatsoever, anil tried them by the 

 same test, he would have arrived at the same results. Five 

 days at the new and full moon would include a third of the entire 

 lunar month; and thus a third of all the changes of weather 

 which occurred in that period were ascribed by Toaldo to the 

 lunar influence. 



Professor Pilgrim has examined a series of observations on the 

 lunar phases as connected with the changes of weather, made at 

 Vienna, and continued from 1763 to 1787 a period of twenty- 

 five years and he has found that, of every hundred cases of the 

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