PILGRIM, TOALDO, AND HORSLEY. 



phases, the proportion of the occurrence of changes to that of the 

 settled state of the weather was as follows : 



Changes. Settled Weather. 

 New moon .... 58 42 



Full moon . . . 63 



Quarter . . . .63 



Perigee . . . 72 



Apogee . . . .64 



New moon at perigee . . 80 



New moon at apogee . .64 



Full moon at perigee . . 81 



Full moon at apogee . .68 



37 

 37 

 28 

 36 

 20 

 36 

 19 

 32 



Admitting these results, it would follow, contrary to popular 

 belief and to the observations of Toaldo, that the new moon is the 

 least active of the phases ; and that the full moon and quarters 

 are equally active ; also that the influence of perigee, or the 

 nearest position of the moon, is greater than that of any of the 

 phases, while the influence of apogee, or its greatest distance, is 

 equal to that of the quarters and full moon, and greater than 

 that of the new moon. 



But Pilgrim's calculations are liable to objections similar 

 to those to which Toaldo's are obnoxious. Like Toaldo, he 

 included in his enumerations of changes corresponding to the 

 phases, changes which occurred the days preceding and following 

 the phases : this being the case, the only wonder is that the 

 proportion which he has found, especially for the new moon, is 

 not more favourable to his hypothesis. But independently of 

 this, Pilgrim's results are not entitled to any confidence : they 

 bear internal evidence of their inaccuracy ; and besides, the 

 observations were not continued for a sufficient length of time to 

 give a safe and certain conclusion. 



In the years 1774 and 1775, Dr. Horsley directed his attention 

 to the question, aud published two papers in the " Philosophical 

 Transactions," with a view to dispel the popular prejudice on 

 the subject of lunar influences. Horsley's observations, however, 

 were confined to so short a period of time (two years), that they 

 could not be expected to afford any satisfactory results. He 

 found that in the year 1774 there were only two changes of 

 weather which corresponded with the new moon, and none with 

 the full moon ; and that in the year 1775 there were only four 

 changes which corresponded with the new moon, and three with 

 the full moon. 



Dismissing, then, this popular notion of the correspondence of 

 changes of the weather with the lunar phases, let us consider 

 the question of lunar influences in a more general point of view, 



73 



