Conclusions 



It is often argued in New England that a program of raising all replace- 

 ments for the dairy herd is better than buying some or all replacements 

 for two reasons. First, purchased replacements are thought to be inferior 

 to home-raised replacements relative to risk of disease, herd life, and milk 

 production. The second traditional argument in favor of a program of 

 raising replacements is that it is cheaper and thus leads to optimum profits. 



Based on the sources of physical data in this study, apparently there 

 is no great difference in herd life, disease control, or levels of production 

 between raised and purchased cows. Under certain price relationships, New 

 England dairymen can specialize further and can utilize their resources 

 more economically. Under some conditions, the raising of dairy-herd re- 

 placements by individual farmers does not represent the best use of in- 

 dividual farm resources for the development of the New England dairy 

 economy. 



When certain inflexibilities in resources were considered, profits gen- 

 erally would have been increased if the operator of a typical dairy farm 

 had shifted from raising to buying replacements. In general, it pays to 

 carry as many cows as possible regardless of the effect on numbers of re- 

 placements raised. Individual farm situations determine whether the resi- 

 dual inflexible resources should be used to raise replacements. In most 

 mstances, they should be. The problem of inflexibility in resources is im- 

 portant in the short run. The physical production relationships provided 

 in this bulletin can be used by indivdual farmers to determine the profit- 

 ability of using these resources. 



In the long run, most resources on New England dairy farms are 

 flexible as to use, and dairymen would find it economically advantageous to 

 shift from raising to buying replacements within the framework of current 

 prices and technology. A major change in the relationship between prices 

 of replacements and prices of milk would probably result, however, if the 

 demand for replacements increased because a large number of dairymen 

 stopped raising replacements. It may be that the price of replacements has 

 been low historically in New England because many farmers believed that 

 raised replacements were cheaper and better. 



A trend on New England dairy farms toward specialization in pro- 

 duction of milk and purchase of replacements, together with the historical 

 downward trend in the number of dairy farms, may offer new opportunities 

 on the farms that are forced out of commercial milk production. Many of 

 the farm resources that are forced out of milk production by recent inno- 

 vations in methods of handling milk and the trend toward higher capitali- 

 zation are of a quality that could be used to raise replacements. Many of 

 these resources are combined in sm.all units that are not suited to com- 

 mercial specialization in the raising of replacements, but they could be 

 used to carry and raise young stock for commercial dairymen. A profitable 

 solution would be for individual farmers to contract to have their heifers 

 raised by part-time farmers and returned to them upon maturity as re- 

 placements to their dairy herds. 



58 



