In both the pre- and post-construction "actual" and "optimum" compari- 

 sons, large acreages of brush and woodland pasture were used. In the com- 

 parisons of "potential capacity", developed in a later section, use of brush 

 and woodland pasture is drastically curtailed. Much of such areas would 

 probably be better used from both the conservation and economic approaches 

 as parts of large-scale wood or lumber lots or as recreational, or fish and 

 game areas. 



The "actual" comparisons reflect the demand for lands for agriculture 

 in terms of the number, size, and types of enterprises existing in the pre- 

 and post-construction periods. In the post-construction period, of course, 

 such demands in the reservoir area also reflect lessees' or prospective lessees' 

 expectations of losses from inundation, inaccessibility of certain tracts, and 

 dissatisfaction with leasing arrangements. Neither the "optimum" nor the 

 "potential capacity" comparisons attempt to adjust for the demand (or 

 actual need) for lands for agriculture. The effect of trends in agriculture 

 on post-construction output is discussed in a later section which attempts 

 to derive some residual effects of the projects on actual output. 



C. Post-Construction "Potential" Level 



Relatively large proportions of the land suitable for agriculture have re- 

 mained idle since construction of the projects. This reflects a combination 

 of factors: the demand for farm land, lessee's and prospective lessee's 

 appraisals of risks, inaccessibility of certain tracts, and the impact of public 

 acquisition, ownership, and leasing arrangements. Yet the "potential ca- 

 pacity'" of these lands today is such that the area could equal or exceed 

 pre-construction output. In the event that such lands were required for 

 agricultural use. their reorganization into economic units ( according to 

 capabilities), institution of optimum levels of management, and conversion 

 of all resources to the highest income possibilities would accomplish this 

 objective. 



In determining the "potential capacity" of reservoir lands, projections are 

 confined to two periods, i.e., immediate and present post-construction. 

 Shifts in uses, boundaries, and management levels of the magnitude required 

 would have been extremely unlikely under the pre-construction ownership 

 pattern. The difference in the two projected values is due to elapsed time. 

 From the immediate post-construction years much land has grown up and 

 is reclaimable for agricultural use only after reclearing. As time goes on, 

 the "potential capacity" will decline at an accelerated rate on unused lands. 



Table 12. Assumptions Involved in Projections of 



of Reservoir Lands 



'Potential Capacity' 



Owner- Level of Acreage Types of 



Period ship Boundaries Management Used Uses Risk 



Immediate 

 and present 

 post-construction 



Public 



Interpolated, 



using risk 



and use data 



Optimum 



Open, suit- 

 able for 

 agriculture* 



Optimum 



Flooding 

 history, 

 based on 

 experience 

 to date 



* Without reclaiming. 



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