and hay land now is suitable only for open pasture. Some of this land, to- 

 gether with some of the land which formerly was open pasture, has now 

 grown up to the point where it can be used only for brush pasture. Land from 

 the two preceding classes, as well as land which was formerly used for 

 brush pasture, has now grown up to such an extent that it should be left 

 in ungrazed forest or wood land. 



However, with the changes in technology, a smaller amount of acreage at 

 present can produce almost as much output as a larger amount of land 

 formerly. Thus, with higher per-acre yields or carrying-capacity of pasture, 

 the substantially smaller acreages of land suitable for agriculture in the 

 reservoir areas could now result in a total of man hours almost as large 

 as could be estimated for the imme- 

 diate post-construction period. 



Some general conclusions can be 

 drawn by comparing Table 7 and 11 

 with Table 13. These are confined to 

 aggregate acreages and aggregate 

 man hours, since other data are in a 

 sense contributory to these major 

 items. Both the immediate and pre- 

 sent post-construction "potential" es- 

 timates exceed the pre-construction 

 actual" estimates by a significant 



margin, both in terms of acreage and 



Part of this tract behind Blackwater 

 dam has been planted to corn with 

 poor results due to excessive water. 



man hours, and substantially exceed 

 post-construction "actual" estimates. 

 This indicates under-utilization of re- 

 servoir lands, both in the pre- and 

 post-construction periods. This stems 

 from the fact that there were consid- 

 erable acreages of land which were 

 associated with agricultural enter- 

 prises, but not directly used for agri- 

 culture, and the fact that levels of 

 management were somewhat low. For 



both Franklin Falls and Blackwater the immediate post-construction "poten- 

 tial" estimates were somewhat lower than the pre-construction "optimum" 

 estimates in terms of total man hours. For Surry Mountain the reverse is true. 

 In terms of total acreage suitable for agricultural use, somewhat more land 

 could have been used in the Franklin Falls and Surry Mountain areas under 

 the immediate post-construction "potential" estimates than under the pre-con- 

 struction "optimum" estimates, and about the same acreage for the Black- 

 water area. Present post-construction "potential" estimates for all three reser- 

 voir areas considerably exceed post-construction "optimum" estimates, both 

 in terms of acreages and man work units. 



The pre-construction "optimum" estimates were, of course, based on 

 bringing into utilization all of those lands associated with agricultural enter- 

 prises, and of raising the level of management to that which was carried 

 out by the better operators at that point in time. With the acquisition of 

 reservoir lands and the building of the dams, the risks which were involved 

 changed. Thus, in developing the immediate post-construction "potential" 



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