While it would be theoretically possible for output from reservoir lands 

 to approach or exceed "actual" pre-construction levels on the basis of post- 

 construction "optimum" or "potential" calculations, demand for agricultural 

 lands in these areas is presently insufficient to realize the necessary ex- 

 pansion in acreage or intensification of use. However, by some rather mod- 

 erate adjustments within the present framework, preferably of the type 

 suggested under "potential capacity" estimates, output from reservoir lands 

 could easily parallel that from non-reservoir lands in the same towns. These 

 are summarized in Table 17. 



Tabic 17. Adjustinents Needed to Enable Reservoir Lands to Support 



Proportionate Number of Taxable Roughage-Consuming Livestock 



to Those Presently Supported by Non-Reservoir Lands in Reservoir Towns 



Project 



Franklin Falls Full use of presently-leased tracts at (iptimum level of management. 



Blackwater Full use of presently-leased tracts at optimum level of managemenit. 



Surry Mountain Full use of presently-leased tracts at optimum level of management; 

 phis use of additional tracts. 



MacDowell Full use of presently-leased tracts* at oi)timum level of management. 



* Including tracts suitable for leasing on which imiuiries received. 



Only in the Surry Mountain reservoir area would a significant increase 

 in acreage be required. In the other areas sufficient increase in output could 

 be accomplished by full use of tracts presently under lease, including a 

 higher level of management. Such a level would be entirely feasible in view 

 of actual risks and the practices of the better operators now using reservoir 

 lands. 



C. Residual Effects of Flood Control Projects 



A substantial proportion of the reduction in agricultural output from the 

 reservoir lands would probably have occurred even in the absence of the 

 projects. This is borne out by the trends in agricultural output in the non- 

 reservoir lands in these areas. Further reductions were effected by the dis- 

 ruptions associated with appraisal, negotiation, and purchase, and by the 

 over-evaluation of risks of using reservoir lands, the inherent reluctance 

 of farin operators to accord reservoir lands proper treatment, the absence 

 of a positive land management policy, and some of the problems associ- 

 ated with the competitive bidding system in effect. 



With ininor restrictions and flexibility on the part of farm operators, 

 reservoir lands could continue in use. This would mean locating farmsteads 

 elsewhere and using these lands at some distance from the farmstead for 

 crops, hay. or pasture in reorganized units and according to capabilities. 

 With these projects, the affected areas were largely concerned with dairy- 

 ing. Had the areas been used for fruit or crops with less tolerance as to 

 soil and water conditions, the residual effects would have been increased 

 and the prospects for minimization reduced. 



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