FUTURE VALUE OF FOREST PRODUCTS 2OI 



general effect of this substitution, where the market has been 

 spoiled for cordwood, is to encourage the growth of timber of 

 larger dimensions, suitable for ties, telegraph poles and lumber, 

 from which the owner may realize eventually as large a profit 

 as from, his cordwood. Substitutes thus tend to bring about 

 longer rotations, greater diversity of wood products, higher 

 values per acre, and increased usefulness of each acre of forest, 

 and do not, in general, interfere seriously or permanently with 

 the industry of wood production. Radical changes in the man- 

 agement of forests may become necessary by these economic 

 changes in utilization and markets, and the rate of interest 

 earned in private forestry may be diminished by the necessity 

 of longer rotations and more specialized products. New uses 

 for wood spring up to take the place of former demands now 

 obsolete. 



The use of substitutes will undoubtedly prevent wood prices 

 from rising as rapidly as in the decade 1898-1908 and probably 

 explains in some measure the slower increase which has occurred 

 since that date. But substitutes will never do away with the 

 use and demand for wood, nor cause the average value of wood 

 products and timber stumpage to be lowered to any appreciable 

 extent. Prices are still far below the level established in Europe, 

 and it is reasonable to expect that these prices will continue 

 to increase slightly faster than those for other goods, for some 

 time to come. 



190. Future Operating Costs. Future costs of logging and 

 milling will increase approximately at the same rate as general 

 prices. Added to this are the special factors which may cause 

 operating costs to vary from this general trend. 



The cost of labor is the largest item in logging. Throughout 

 northern regions the effectiveness of woods labor is rapidly di- 

 minishing. Old-time American lumberjacks are very rare, and a 

 large part of the work is performed by inexperienced foreigners, 

 or shifting labor from the city slums, resulting in an increased 

 cost considerably greater than can be accounted for by increased 

 wages. This tendency is offset by improved efficiency, as 

 operators learn from experience the use of the best technique. 



