204 FOREST VALUATION 



193. Local Factors : Future Supply of Timber. From the 

 factors discussed in Articles 191 and 192 it is apparent that the 

 local value of timber stumpage in the future depends largely 

 upon the total quantity of timber produced in that locality, 

 and the continuity of the supply. If virgin timber is being 

 appraised, its value must often be based on the premise that it 

 will be logged at the time the remaining stumpage is cut, since 

 it is worth more now than it may ever be again. If the timber 

 is of second growth, or is in a region of second growth, the extent, 

 average age, vigor and utility of this second growth is of the 

 greatest importance in appraising the value of any separate par- 

 cel or tract. Where most of the cut-over areas are ravaged by 

 fire, or otherwise rendered worthless, an isolated patch of repro- 

 duction or plantation not only costs more to protect, but its 

 stumpage value is permanently less in such a region than if it 

 were a part of an abundant second growth. It may pay better 

 to plant trees in regions where natural reforestation is abundant 

 than under the reverse conditions. By following out this argu- 

 ment it will be seen that extensive operations on the part of 

 states or the national government to protect and reproduce 

 large areas of forest will have the effect of raising stumpage 

 prices for those private owners who grow trees in such 

 localities. 



194. The Rate of Increase in Stumpage Value. By care- 

 fully weighing both general tendencies and the equally important 

 local factors, the examiner may appraise the probable stumpage 

 value of timber with considerable accuracy for a period of 10 to 

 15 years in the future. Beyond this period, so many unforeseen 

 events may occur to affect prices that only a semblance of accu- 

 racy can attach to such appraisals. One of two suppositions 

 can be made. The value may be assumed to remain constant 

 beyond a certain year. The tendencies of prices and the 

 history of wood consumption justify so conservative a con- 

 clusion. 



The second assumption is that prices will continue to advance 

 at the same per cent as in the past. The validity of this con- 

 clusion depends upon the meaning attached to the phrase; 



