explanation of what is happening and perhaps he projected into the 

 future. It is the purpose of the following section to discuss and/or ana- 

 lyze these trends. 



I. IMPORTANT TRENDS IN THE APPLE INDUSTRY 



Production 



In 1920 there were 42 apple producing states. Since 1934 the United 

 States Department of Agriculture has classified only 30 states as engaged 

 in "commercial apple production." This information, in itself, indicates 

 that a certain degree of concentration in the production of apples has 

 occured since 1920. Additional facts to he presented will prove that 

 there has been a reduction in tree numbers. Production of apples, how- 

 ever, has not declined. It would appear that elimination of unproduc- 

 tive areas and improved technology have been responsible for the fact 

 that production has remained fairly stalile in the face of a reduction 

 in the number of trees. 



Numbers of Trees 



The census report in Table 1 shows that the numljer of apple trees 

 growing in the United States in 1959 was only 20 percent of the number 

 in existence 40 years earlier. Although part of this decline was due to 

 changes in census definitions of orchards, there obviously has been a 

 rapid decline in tree numbers. Since 1940, however, the relative rates 

 of decline in Ijearing vs. non-bearing age trees has been markedly dif- 

 ferent. In fact there was an actvial increase in non-Iiearing age trees 

 from 1954 to 1959. The 1959 census indicated 65 percent less bearing 

 age trees than did the 1940 census, while the numbers of non-bearing 

 age (young) trees dropped only 35 percent. 



The rapid decrease in the number of liearing-age trees during the 

 latter part of the period was due primarily to the fact that many margi- 

 nal trees had been removed. As apple production has become more 

 specialized and spray programs more exacting it has been necessary to 

 remove old trees that are declining in productivity as well as trees 

 that have become too large to spray ellectivelv. In addition, many trees 

 have been abandoned. Increasing pressure on land by a rapidly expand- 

 ing economy and population has necessitated replacement of unpro- 

 ductive trees with young trees or their removal in order that the land 

 be released for other uses. The fact that numljers of young trees have 

 not been declining very fast in recent years suggests that the general 

 decline is in the process of levelling off, as specialized orchards are pro- 

 viding a stabilizing influence. 



The increase in non-bearing age trees during the past five-year period 

 is partially due to the fact that many orchardists are replacing standard- 

 sized trees with dwarf trees. This is an attempt to reduce picking and 

 spraying costs by using smaller trees. The fact that several dwarf trees 

 are required to replace one standard tree in terms of space in the or- 

 chard or a given volume of production would tentl to increase the num- 

 ber of trees planted. The increase in new plantings should be viewed 

 also as a sign of optimism on the part of growers. 



