Predicting Future Consumption 



By making certain assumptions some indication of the market for 

 apples in 1970 can he presented. The assumptions made in the first case 

 are (1) that population continues to expand at somewhat near the cur- 

 rent rate, and (2) that per capita consumption of all apples continues 

 to decline at the current rate. 



Assuming that population will increase to the high figure predicted 

 by the Bureau of the Census, the market for apples will experience 

 some increase in demand hetween 1960 and 1970. The net effect under 

 these assumptions is an increase in total consumption of apples of over 

 3 million bushels or about 3 percent of current levels. Should population 

 increase only up to the Census Bureau's lower estimates, the market 

 would increase by about 0.6 percent of present levels. 



The above analysis assumes a constant decline in per capita con- 

 sumption of 0.36 pounds per year. Should per capita consumption level 

 off near current rates (as it appears to be doing since 1955) total con- 

 sumption of apples could increase by over 15 percent of current levels. 



In summary, it seems that apple producers can expect some increase 

 in market for their product during the next 10 years. Should consump- 

 tion rates level off, increases in population could materially increase 

 the market for apples. 



II. CURRENT CHARACTERISTICS OF THE APPLE MARKET 



The previous section attempted to show the path that the industry 

 has followed in acquiring its current characteristics. The next prolilem 

 to be undertaken will be that of describing the current structure of the 

 apple market. 



Transportation of Apples 



The fact that commercial apple production is currently centered in 

 rather specific regions has definite implications regarding the market 

 structure for this crop. Because the major producing areas are not in- 

 variably the major consuming areas, the process of equating supply and 

 demand results in considerable interregional transportation in an ordi- 

 nary crop year. 



Total reported rail and truck shipments between the major producing 

 states and 24 major city markets are shown for 1959 and 1960 in Table 

 7. Two states, Washington and New York, accounted for over 60 per- 

 cent of the total 1959 and 1960 shipments ( New York City receipts from 

 "Upstate" New York accounted for much of this state's shipments)." 



Washington and California shipped to almost every major city listed 

 during this period. California's shipments to individual markets, liow- 



^ The shipments referred to in this analysis are of apples for fresh use. It is vir- 

 tually impossible to report shipments of apples for processing use because they are 

 usually short distance hauls in farmers' or processors' trucks and accurate records 

 are not available. 



Intra-state shipments to small city markets are not included, with the result that 

 some producing states with high concentrations of population (such as the north- 

 eastern states) do not show up as important shipping states. 



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