ation would not be stable over time. Local producers would expand 

 production to the point at which increased costs and/or decreased re- 

 turns would eliminate abnormal net revenue. Since this has not hap- 

 pened, it can be assumed that the local apple producer in deficit areas 

 already faces production costs that are higher to the extent that they 

 just about offset the costs of transportation accruing to distant producers. 



The Time Factor 



When analvzing regional competition on major markets for perish- 

 able products the time element must be considered. It is possible, in 

 some instances, for two producing areas to share the market and yet 

 not be on it concurrently. In the case of apples it is possible for all 

 areas to ship at roughly the same time. This situation does not hold for 

 such highly perishable items as strawberries or lettuce which are har- 

 vested at different dates in different areas and must be shipped immedi- 

 ately. Most apples are harvested at about the same time and then placed 

 in storage from which they can be shipped at any time during the fol- 

 lowing six to eight months. 



The general situation seems to be one in which local producers market 

 early in the season and distant shippers later in the season. Assuming 

 this to be the case, the Western Region, which sends a large portion of 

 its crop to distant markets, would be expected to ship more heavily dur- 

 ing a later part of the marketing season than the Central and Atlantic 

 Regions, which dispose of their crops within the region. Although all 

 regions have a peak of shipments in the late fall, the Western Region 

 ships only about 40 percent of its total crop before January 1, while the 

 Atlantic and Central regions ship over 70 percent of their crop before 

 January 1. 



There are two reasons for the current pattern of heavy shipments dur- 

 ing the late fall. The first relates to the cost of storage facilities for 

 fresh apples. Most of the apples moving to the fresh market during and 

 immediately after harvest by-pass the storage operation. On a purelv 

 economic liasis it is evident that growers will tend to sell large quantities 

 of apples during this period. Even though it will depress price, "early 

 selling" saves on storage costs. Since the initial costs of placing apples 

 in storage is high, there is a strong incentive to market large quantities 

 of fresh apples early in the season. 



The second factor that disposes the industry towards early season 

 marketing concerns the pattern of fresh citrus shipments to market. The 

 pattern of monthly shipments of citrus fruits, which are apples' major 

 competitors on the fruit market, do not reach a peak until December. ^"^ 

 This provides some economic justification for apple shipments being 

 relatively heavy between the time of harvest and the date when fresh 

 citrus fruits are appearing on the market in large volumes. It must bo 

 remembered, however, that fresh citrus consumption (and therefore ship- 

 ments I is declining rather rapidly in the face of accelerating consump- 

 tion of frozen citrus concentrates which do not have a seasonal variation 

 in supply. 1'* 



IS See Chart 8, p. 35. 



1^ During the period 1955 to 1960 per capita consumption of fresh citrus fruits fell 

 20 percent while fresh apple consumption remained about stable. 



23 



