In summary, all of these factors seem to point to the possihility of 

 apple producers (especially those in deficit areas) increasing net re- 

 turns through a leveling out of fresh shipments throughout the market- 

 ing season. Technological developments also appear to he strengthening 

 this possihility. Advances in the technology of growing and harvesting 

 are producing a product of higher quality that is more adaptable to 

 storage. The Western Region has had an advantage storage-wise in that 

 the varieties grown there ( principally Delicious and Winesap ) can be 

 stored longer than the "softer" varieties (Macintosh, Cortland, Rome, 

 and York) which comprise the major portion of the crop produced in 

 the Central and Atlantic Regions. "Controlled atmosphere storage" is 

 reducing this advantage for it is now possible to store the once highly 

 perishable Macintosh through the entire marketing season. 



A more even pattern of shipments from producers in all regions would 

 presumably result in a lessening of intraregional but an increase in in- 

 terregional competition. In general, the distant shippers predominate 

 in the latter portion of the marketing season. Should nearby producers 

 (located in deficit areas) store a larger portion of their crop and follow 

 a seasonal shipping (or marketing) pattern similar to that of distant 

 shippers, the competition between regions would increase. 



Competition Between Fresh and Processed Apples 



In addition to competing on the market with other fruit products, 

 fresh apples also compete with processed apples and vice versa. 



Processed Market a Buffer 



The annual percentage of apples going into fresh or processed use 

 varies considerably, due primarily to wide fluctuations in the size of 

 the total crop. In general, a small crop will have a greater percentage 

 going into fresh use than a large crop. Regression analysis indicates an 

 inverse relationship between the size of the apple crop and the percent- 

 age of apples going into fresh use.-'* These implications are in agree- 

 ment with general economic theory. When quantities are large, surpluses 

 can be expected to go into lower price outlets. In the case of apples, 

 these would be the processing outlets. During a small crop year, high 

 prices of apples at the farm can he expected. Processors in this instance 

 would be inclined to allow stocks of canned apples to dwindle, to buy 

 just enough apples to fill the gap between stock on hand and expected 

 consumption, and to maintain employment of machines and labor at 

 the minimum level. 



The annual quantity of apples going into fresh uses would, therefore, 

 be expected to be more stable than the quantity going into processing 

 outlets. A comparison of the variances of the annual quantities of apples 



-f Using 1934-1960 annual data, a simple regression analysis produces the following 

 equation: 



Yc := 76.9023 — 0.0799X 



(0.035) 

 Yc = the estimated value of the percentage of the total crop used fresh. 

 X = total commercial apple production in millions of bushels. 



29 



