100 HUMAN FECUNDITY 



lower races than among the civilized races. The trend of the 

 evidence is at least suggestive when it is remembered that accord- 

 ing to the estimate made by Matthews Duncan a normal woman 

 among civilized races living in wedlock throughout the mature 

 period under favourable circumstances should bear from ten 

 to twelve children. 1 



If the view suggested is correct, we should expect to find in such 

 countries as India and China a higher fecundity than among 

 primitive races, but a lower fecundity than among European 

 races. There is some indication that this is so. At first sight it 

 might seem that the well-known fertility of these races indicated 

 a higher fecundity than in Europe. When, however, in the case 

 of India, not the crude fertility, but the fertility corrected for the 

 number of married women of reproductive age is calculated, it is 

 found to be lower than in Europe. The figures per 1 ,000 are 160 in 

 India and 196 in England. 2 It has, of course, to be remembered 

 that there are in both countries certain factors bearing upon 

 fertility early marriage in India and restraint from intercourse 

 and contraceptive methods in England. But it can hardly be 

 supposed that the former is more effective than the latter in 

 decreasing fecundity, and it is probable that we have here an indica- 

 tion of lower fecundity in India. 



10. All the evidence, therefore, points to the same conclusion. If 

 there has been any general change in the strength of human 

 fecundity in the course of human history, using that phrase in the 

 widest sense, it has been in the direction of an increase. It is not 

 necessary for our present purpose to attempt to be more precise. 

 This view is, as we shall show below, that of the best authorities. 

 It may be noticed that different opinions are frequently expressed 

 by authors who are not professional biologists. 3 Such opinions are 

 in most cases so vaguely worded that it is seldom clear what 



1 Matthews Duncan, Fecundity, Fertility, and Sterility, p. 112. 2 Wattal, 



Population Problem in India, p. 7. 



3 See, for instance, Eucken, Currents of Modern Thought, p. 264. When Herbert 

 Spencer says (Principles of Biology, vol. ii, p. 431) that 'advancing evolution 

 must be accompanied by declining fertility ', he is apparently using the term 

 fertility as equivalent to fecundity and is therefore misrepresenting the position. 

 The Dean of St. Paul's is doubtless aware of the true state of the case ; never- 

 theless his reference to the subject is likely to be misleading. After remarking 

 upon the fact that fecundity (which he calls fertility) decreases among animals 

 with increasing care for the offspring, he goes on to say that ' man is no exception 

 to these laws ' (Outepoken Essays, p. 60). As a matter of fact, man is a remarkable 

 exception to this ' law ' ; if anything, his fecundity has increased. His position 

 has become assimilated to that of the animals because his fertility has decreased 

 quite another matter. 



