88 A SUPPOSED CASE. 



are not always punctual. The lading cannot be 

 completed in time, or adverse winds render the 

 setting sail unadvisable. At length, after a month 

 or six weeks' delay, he proceeds on his voyage, and 

 finds belt number one perhaps much the same as 

 last year. He congratulates himself on his good 

 fortune, and notes his observations j but in belt 

 number- two, the wind is somewhat modified, owing 

 to its being later in the season, it is rather against 

 him. In number three it is right in his teeth, 

 whereas last year it was quite in his favour. In 

 number four, which we will suppose is the trade- 

 wind belt (of which more hereafter), he finds the 

 wind still easterly. Here, then, is the ground- 

 work of confusion in our sailor's mind. He has 

 not the remotest idea that in belt number one the 

 wind blows chiefly, but not always, in one par- 

 ticular direction ; that in number four it blows in- 

 variably in one way ; and that in number three it 

 is regularly irregular. In fact, he does not know 

 that such belts exist at all, and his opportunities of 

 observing are not sufficiently frequent or prolonged 

 to enable him to ascertain anything with certainty. 

 Now, when we remember that in this imperfect 

 experience of his he is still further misled by his 

 frequently encountering local vicissitudes such as 

 storms and calms resulting from local and tem- 

 porary causes we see how confusion becomes worse 

 confounded. No doubt he does gather some few 

 crumbs of knowledge ; but he is called on, perhaps, 



