5'0 



NA TURE 



[September 20, 1900 



swine recorded at or near the commencement, the middle, and 

 the close of the past thirty years, may be contrasted for export- 

 ing countries with expanding populations and growing agri- 

 culture, and in countries where these conditions are absent, or 

 in a typical consuming centre like our own country. Relying 

 on the agricultural returns of the United States, a table could 

 be constructed, as under, for three dates within the past thirty 

 years which furnish the following indication of agricultural 

 changes : — 



In 1870 the United States held, it would thus appear, a popula- 

 tion of 38,600,000, and grew an acre of maize for each unit ot 

 the population, and an acre of wheat for every two persons, 

 and somewhat more than an acre of cotton for every four. At 

 this period the surplus exported to other nations, it may be 

 added, represented two-thirds of the cotton, rather more than 

 one-fifth of the wheat, but less than one per cent, of the maize. 



In 1885 the population had augmented to an estimated total 

 of 56,000,000, or by 45 per cent. The area under the crops 

 above quoted had meantime been extended in nearly twice this 

 ratio. The United States exported still about two-thirds of the 

 cotton grown ; the wheat export was slightly greater in propor- 

 tion to the product than before, or 26 per cent. ; while nearly 3 

 per cent, of the maize crop found a market abroad. 



The population of the States is now estimated to have risen 

 to 76,000,000, or twice what it was thirty years ago, although 

 the census has yet to say if this calculation has been realised.. 

 The cultivation of maize had meantime reached 82,000,000 

 acres, wheat was reported to cover 44,000,000 acres, and cotton 

 25,000,000 acres, while the foreign market received 65 per 

 cent, of the cotton, 33 per cent, of the wheat, and now as 

 much as 9 per cent, of the maize grown on these areas. 



In none of these cases, it will be noted, has the area under 

 crop failed to increase, but in all the rate of increase was dis- 

 tinctly slower in the second than in the first half of the period. 

 If time sufficed to trace the annual course of movement between 

 the contrasted dates, it might be well remembered that from 

 187 1 onward to 1889, with only a single slight check in 1887, 

 the growth of the maize acreage has been continuous. From 

 1889 to 1894 fluctuations were reported yearly, ending in the 

 latter year at a total acreage no higher than that of 1880, but 

 returning again in a single year, if the record can be trusted, to 

 the highest point reached. The wheat acreage movement has 

 been more irregular, and the latest figures are complicated by 

 the admitted corrections which were made to an amount of 

 5,000,000 acres for too low previous estimates in 1897. 

 Allowing for this, the regular upward movement of the wheat 

 acreage was apparently checked in 1880, and has only begun 

 again since 1898 under the stimulus of higher prices in that 

 year. 



In live stock the development would seem to have been 

 arrested altogether between 1885 and the end of the century in 

 the case of cattle, and turned into an absolute decline in the 

 number of sheep and swine, although in the fifteen years before 

 1885 cattle had increased more than 71 per cent., swine 74 

 per cent., and sheep 25 per cent. As a matter of fact the 

 maximum number of cattle was reached in 1892, when the 

 numbers were 54,000,000, or ten millions more than at present, 

 the stock of swine declining in a still greater ratio from the 

 same year, and sheep declining and rising again in the separate 

 periods between 1883 and 1889, and between 1893 and 1897. 

 If the ratio under each head to population is considered, it 

 would appear that the United States possessed 661 cattle for 

 every 1000 of her citizens in 1870. This was raised to 829 per 

 1000 persons in 1885, while the ratio now has fallen again below 

 the starting-point, or to 604 per 1000 persons. Sheep have 

 fallen in the thirty years from 1060 in 1870 to 880, and now to 



NO. 161 2, VOL. 62] 



537 head only per 1000 inhabitants. These remarkable changes 

 are worthy of note in connection with the exports of living 

 animals and animal products, which last have been maintainecJ 

 at a still higher level than before. 



Turning to a country of nearly stationary population, provided 

 for in the main from its own agricultural produce with only 

 slight assistance from abroad, a like contrast for the beginning, 

 the middle, and the end of the period under review will give 

 roughly the results shown below. Here, although we are 

 provided with an annual figure, the start has to be made after 

 the Franco-German war with the data two years later, or in 1872. 

 (For table, see below). 



Thus in France, where wheat-growing has always had such a 

 predominance among the cereals, the area is neither increasing 

 nor diminishing. The total of 17,000,000 acres falls, however^ 

 somewhat short of the provision of an acre to two persons, 

 which held good in the United States ; but this is more tharv 

 corrected by the higher average yield, which is nearly 5 bushels 

 per acre greater in France than in America. Taking wheat and 

 rye together, there are a million acres less of bread corn growrv 

 in France than there was when her slow-moving population was 

 two millions smaller, or less than 58 acres to 100 persons now 

 as against 60 acres to the 100 twenty-eight years ago. 



1899 



Population, in million persons 

 Area under wheat, in million acres , 

 Area under oats ,, 



Area under rye ,, 



Area in vineyards ,, 



Cattle (million head) 

 Sheep ,, 



Swine ,, 



38-5 



I7-I 

 97 



3■^ 



43' 

 13-4' 

 21 3^ 



6-2 1 



The changes which the last quarter of the nineteenth century 

 has seen in the leading features of French agriculture may be 

 easily summarised. The population of 1872 but little exceeded 

 36,000,000, that of 1885 reached 38,000,000, and the latest data 

 only bring it up to little over 38,500,000. The wheat-growing 

 area remains, it would appear, under all conditions practically at 

 17,000,000 acres, the only break to the general uniformity of 

 the cultivation of this cereal (with which the returns include 

 spelt) occurring in the season of 1891, when, under exceptional 

 climatic conditions, only 14,000,000 acres were harvested. 



There is one typical French agricultural product — wine — 

 which has materially declined under circumstances which are 

 well known. The vineyards of 1872, which were reported as 

 covering 6,500,000 acres, are now returned as less by a third of 

 that area, and covering 4,300,000 acres only. 



In cattle a material growth up to 1885, but a very small 

 increase since that year, is reported ; while if sheep, as in all 

 European countries, are fewer, the fall is less than in Germany, 

 and it is most marked in the first half of the period. Swine in 

 France have steadily increased. As regards the cattle, it may 

 be noted that France had 313 cattle to each 1000 of her people 

 in 1872,345 in 1885, and 352 per 1000 now. Of sheep the 

 number per 1000 is 560, against 681 at the earlier date. 



Treating a few of the distinctive points of our own agri- 

 culture in the same way at the beginning, middle, and end of 

 the past thirty years, the statistics of the United Kingdom would 

 give these results : — 



Here the most striking contrast with France is in the growth 

 of population. From being a country with 5,000,000 fewer 



