FUTURE EXPENSE ESTIMATED. 75 



tainties which confront us in the condition of these forest lands 

 eliminated, our opinions would more nearly approximate to the 

 character of estimates made by experts when all the conditions of 

 a problem are known. 



In 1893 considerable progress toward extermination was made. 

 Ten towns were apparently cleared, comprising more than one-third 

 of the territory originally infested. In 1894, with the appropriation 

 asked for ($165,000), the committee ought to be able to bring 

 into the same category Swampscott, Salem, Peabody, Wakefield, 

 Woburn, Lexington, Winthrop and Franklin Park. This would 

 leave Belmont, Arlington, Cambridge, Chelsea, East Boston, Ever- 

 ett, Lynn, Maiden, Medford, Melrose, Eevere, Saugus, Somerville, 

 Stoneham and Winchester still infested. Several of these towns 

 should be very nearly or quite cleared in 1894. But we have, in 

 our estimates, left them with the list of probably uncleared. If, 

 in 1895, $150,000 is appropriated, the work of that year should 

 clear all towns but Arlington, Chelsea, Everett, Maiden, Medford, 

 Melrose, Revere, Saugus and Somerville. The moth in these 

 towns should then be brought to the verge of extermination so 

 that, with an appropriation of $100,000, the work of 1896 would 

 be quite likely 'to bring them very near to the condition of the 

 cleared towns. During all this time a large amount of this money 

 must be expended in closely inspecting the towns supposed to be 

 cleared. In 1897 an appropriation of $50,000 would be necessary 

 to provide for the completion of the work in the last-mentioned 

 towns and for the necessary careful reinspection of the whole 

 territory. We think this appropriation would also provide means 

 to stamp out any possible remains of colonies supposed to be 

 exterminated that might be found by the careful reinspection. 

 For the five succeeding years we believe that an average annual 

 appropriation of $25,000 would be necessary to continue the care- 

 ful inspection of the whole territory and provide the means to deal 

 with any colonies that may possibly have been overlooked. While 

 it is our opinion that it is quite possible to exterminate the moth 

 if large appropriations, such as have been mentioned, are granted 

 for the next few years, we believe it also probable that should an 

 appropriation of only $50,000 per year be granted the work would 

 have to be continued indefinitely, as a very large proportion of 

 such an appropriation would necessarily be expended in watching 

 the outside territory and taking measures to prevent the spreading 

 of the insect. 



Another method of estimating the probable future cost of exter- 

 mination would be to multiply the average cost of extermination 

 per estate in the towns already cleared by the number of estates 



