226 



NA TURE 



[July 9, 1891 



and in that year the rains were greatly delayed on the 

 Bombay coast, and were very deficient in North-Western 

 India in June, July, and September, commencing late, 

 and terminating early. During the past winter and 

 spring the snowfall on the North-Western Himalaya and 

 the mountains of Afghanistan and Baluchistan has been 

 excessive— indeed, as Mr. Eliot states, unprecedented 

 during the last twenty-five years— and from the reports 

 received from the civil officers and observatories in the 

 mountain districts, he estimates that an average fall of 

 40 feet, if not considerably more, must have fallen over 

 all the higher ranges, from Murree eastward to Garhwal, 

 if not to Central Nepal. That it was the same on the 

 less accessible range of the Hindu Kush we have reason 

 to believe from the casual reports that were received 

 during the last winter, and we know that in Southern 

 Europe and even in Northern Africa, snow fell down to ' 

 the sea-level, and was such as has hardly been experi- 

 enced certainly during the greater part of the present 

 century. The phenomenon has therefore been one of 

 widespread incidence, and indicates some remarkable 

 and rare condition of those higher strata of the atmo- 

 sphere which, we have now reason to believe, are the seat 

 of the more important changes that regulate the vicissi- 

 tudes of the weather of the globe. 



Concurrently with this exceptional extension of the 

 snowfall to low latitudes of the temperate zone, the 

 Indian registers afford evidence of certain abnormal fea- 

 tures, which are such as have been noticed on former 

 occasions of unusual snowfall on the North-West Hima- 

 laya, and the bearing of which on the weakness of the 

 summer monsoon is more clearly traceable. In fact, they 

 tend to Hnk the two phenomena together, whether we 

 regard them as the common effects of some more remote 

 agency, or as displaying the different steps of a physical 

 sequence of cause and effect. The most important of 

 these are : the unusual rainfall over the whole of Northern 

 India in the past winter and spring, amounting to from 

 two to three times the average in the Punjab, where it 

 was heaviest ; a prevailing low temperature in Northern 

 and especially North-Western India, together with a 

 corresponding excess of temperature in Assam, Burma, 

 and Southern India ; and finally, a persistent excess of 

 atmospheric pressure in the former region and a defi- 

 ciency in the latter. These anomalous features have 

 characterized more or less all the months of the present 

 year, especially March and May. As estimated by 

 European standards, the anomalies of this last element 

 may indeed appear small. For instance, the mean excess 

 at Peshawar in May was o"052 inch, at Mooltan o'04i, 

 and at Ouetta 0-049 inch, while the deficiency at Calicut 

 was 0*040 inch, and at Sibsagar o 031 inch. Taken to- 

 gether, they constitute an anomalous gradient from north- 

 west to south and east of something under a tenth of a 

 barometric inch in distances of 1300 and 1500 miles. But 

 in India such differences are relatively large, and, as 

 former experience has abundantly shown, very significant. 

 As temporary phenomena they might indeed be of little 

 importance ; but, lasting as they have done through 

 nearly half a year, they point to an anomalous state of 

 the atmosphere which is evidently persistent, and is dis- 

 tinctly adverse to the northern incursion of the summer 

 monsoon. Taking the general mean of all parts of the 

 empire, the atmospheric pressure has been above the 

 average in every month of the present year. With respect 

 to the winds, Mr. Eliot remarks :— " South-easterly winds 

 have been unusually prevalent in Bengal and Behar 

 during the months of April and May, and north-westerly 

 and northerly winds on the west coast of India as far 

 south as Cochin. The unusual prevalence of north- 

 westerly winds on the Bombay coast in the month of May 

 was one of the features of the weather in 1876, 1883, and 

 1885, in which years the monsoon was greatly retarded 

 on that coast." 



NO. 1132, VOL. 44] 



Finally, after reviewing the chief characteristics of 

 other years in which the Himalayan snowfall has been 

 heavier than usual, Mr. Eliot draws the following con- 

 clusions with respect to the probable character of the 

 monsoon rains of the present year in the different 

 provinces of India : — 



" (i) Snowfall conditions on the Western Himalayas, 

 &c., and the pressure conditions in India are very un- 

 favourable to the establishment of a strong and early 

 monsoon on the Bombay coast. It is very probable that 

 it will not be established in full strength on the Bombay 

 coast before the third or fourth week in June, and it is 

 probable that it will be below its average strength, and 

 may be withdrawn from Upper India earlier than usual 

 in September. 



" (2) The snowfall conditions in the Eastern Himalayas, 

 and the pressure conditions in North-Eastern India and 

 Burma, are favourable to the advance of a moderately 

 strong or strong monsoon in the Bay of Bengal earlier 

 than usual, and to its establishment in Burma and 

 Bengal before or about its normal period," and Burma, 

 Bengal, and Assam are expected to receive an average or 

 more than an average rainfall ; Behar and the eastern 

 districts of the North-West Provinces about the usual 

 amount. In Southern India it is thought probable that 

 the rains may be retarded, but that Malabar and Southern 

 India generally are likely to receive favourable rain during 

 the monsoon. 



On the other hand, it is pointed out that "conditions 

 are very unfavourable for Rajputana, and also to some 

 extent in Guzerat, the southern districts of the Punjab, 

 and the western districts of the North-West Provinces. It 

 is probable the lainfall will be more or less deficient over 

 the whole of that area, and possible that the deficiency 

 may be large and serious." In Northern Bombay and 

 Berar it is thought that " the rainfall is more likely to be 

 slightly deficient than up to its normal amount," and that 

 in the Central Provinces it will be "fairly normal." 



From this abstract it will be seen that the region in 

 which drought is chiefly to be anticipated is the western 

 provinces of Northern India, comprising Rajputana, Guze- 

 rat, the southern districts of the Punjab, and the western 

 districts of the North-West Provinces ; provinces the 

 average rainfall of which does not exceed between 20 

 and 30 inches, and which time after time have been the 

 seat of disastrous famines. Now there is one considera- 

 tion relevant to this subject of which no mention is made 

 in Mr. Eliot's report, and which, notwithstanding that its 

 bearing is purely empirical, cannot, we think, be entirely 

 disregarded when dealing with the question of prob- 

 abilities. This is the fact, first pointed out by the 

 Famine Commissioners, that between 1782 and 1877, on 

 no less than five occasions, a drought in Southern India 

 was followed by a drought in Northern or rather North- 

 Western India in the succeeding year. It does not seem 

 possible, in the present state of our knowledge, even to 

 suggest any physical explanation of this remarkable 

 sequence, but it has been repeated too often to allow of 

 our regarding it as purely fortuitous, and unfortunately it 

 only tends to strengthen the probability of the adverse 

 conditions inferred by Mr. Eliot from the existing state of 

 things. 



It must be confessed, then, that,according to our present 

 means of judgment, the present outlook is by no means 

 hopeful. The mere fact of a retardation of the monsoon 

 rains would not in itself afford cause for serious anxiety. 

 According to the latest report from Madras, indeed, this 

 part of Mr. Eliot's forecast seems to have been justified 

 by the event, for on June 26 the Governor of Madras 

 telegraphs that the south-west monsoon rains have not 

 set in properly in the interior, and are very light even on 

 the Malabar coast,^ whereas the date at which they are 



' We have taken the liberty of altering the punctuation of this telegram 

 to bring it into accordance with sense and fact. 



