88 



NA TURE 



[December 26, 1895 



that the centre of the storm is warm to any great elevation, or 

 that cyclonic circulation obtains to the top of the air. 



In outlining, in a rough and general way, the line of investi- 

 gation which in my judgment promises to give the most prolific 

 results, not only to the cause of meteorological science, but to 

 the making of more accurate forecasts for the benefit of agricul- 

 ture and commerce, I will say that we have been for years taking 

 our measurements at the bottom of this great ocean of air, while 

 the forces which cause the formation of storms, and which 

 influence their intensity and direction of motion, operate at great 

 elevations, or are extraneous to our earth. It therefore seems 

 imperative that systematic exploration should be made of the 

 upper air. Balloon ascensions should be made in the several 

 quadrants of the cyclonic storm, and also at the centre thereof, 

 especially when rain is falling and the barometric gradient is 

 steep. It is especially important to know the level at which 

 condensation ceases, the depth of the cloud stratum, the temper- 

 ature gradient, the air pressure and humidity, to a height of 

 four or five miles. Skilled aeronauts with complete and accurate 

 instruments should be placed in the region of severest action at 

 the season of the year when storms are most frequent. They 

 should be held in readiness until the approach of storms typical 

 of cyclonic action, and then from the central office, where the 

 movement of the storm is being carefully watched on the daily 

 synoptic chart, they should be given telegraphic orders to ascend, 

 and their ascensions should be so timed as to secure accurate 

 readings at great elevations throughout the several quarters of 

 the storm. It is believed that information thus secured will 

 establish something like an approach to the true philosophy of 

 storms, in contradistiction to the very imperfect theories which 

 too often are hastily approved as demonstrated principles. 

 Instead of erecting a cumbersome superstructure upon the sand, 

 let us endeavour to lay a corner-stone upon which to erect some- 

 thing exact enough to be called a science. 



In winter the great high-pressure areas which constitute our 

 cold waves should receive the same thorough exploration. Read- 

 ings at Pike's Peak or Mount Rainier might be useful in this in- 

 vestigation, but they are too far removed from the general track 

 of storms and cold waves to furnish the full information desired. 



Upper-air explorations may be accomplished by a train of 

 kites carrying automatic instruments, by captive kite-balloons 

 which may be forced nearer and nearer the zenith with in- 

 creasing wind velocity, or by the ascension of trained observers 

 in free balloons. We must strive for the perfection of appliances 

 and instruments which will, at no distant day, enable us to pre- 

 sent to the forecaster the charted synchronous meteorological 

 conditions prevailing at high levels and covering a great area. 

 Mr. McAdie, at Washington, has secured recently some good 

 records with kites at elevations from looo to 2000 feet. 



Systematic exploration of the upper air, with a continuation 

 of the studies begun by Prof. Bigelow of terrestrial magnetic 

 forces as induced by the solar magnetic field, will be the line of 

 investigation prosecuted during the next two years, and from 

 which it is hoped that results satisfactory to the practical as 

 well as the theoretical man may be obtained. 



The Secretary of Agriculture is in thorough sympathy with 

 all lines of research which can be legally carried on under the 

 Act of Congress constituting the Weather Bureau, and which 

 promise to give results useful to the people. 



Harmonious co-operation between the practical worker and 

 the scientific investigator is essential to success. Too often 

 they have found themselves picking out diverging paths. In 

 the future they will work on parallel and converging lines, and 

 not far removed from each other, and the result, I am con- 

 fident, will be beneficial to all. In a great system like ours, 

 each worker must be justly recognised for the merit that is in 

 him, whether he be a skilled scientist or an able executive 

 officer, and he should be given his proper place as an integral 

 part of the great whole which constitutes the efficient Bureau. 



A brief retrospect of the forecast work may not be without 

 compensating results in our efforts at future improvements. 



Forecasts were begun in the United States about twenty-five 

 years ago, and have, during the past decade, become of such 

 benefit to the many and diversified interests of the country that, 

 with one accord, the people now acknowledge their value, and 

 applaud all efforts to improve and exiend their usefulness. Fifty 

 million dollars is a low estimate of the value of property placed 

 in jeopardy by one West Indian hurricane sweeping up our 

 Atlantic coast 



Predictions were first called " probabilities," and were made 



NO. 1365. VOL. 53 I 



for districts, each comprising several States, and included a 

 prediction as to the probable change in barometer. Later the 

 prediction as to barometer was omitted. Forecasting by districts 

 was soon shown not to be specific enough as to boundary, and 

 the designations applied were not well understood by the people ; 

 hence forecasting by States was adopted. 



Forecasts were made only at the Central Office at Washington, 

 and the local observers were allowed to disseminate no other, 

 nor to give public expression to any opinion of their own which 

 might be construed into a forecast. Considering the very limited 

 training of the observers, and the lack of all chartered meteoro- 

 logical conditions for their study and enlightenment, the wisdom 

 of that regulation could hardly be questioned. 



With the transfer of the Weather Bureau to the Department 

 of Agriculture, came the inauguration of far more liberal and 

 progressive ideas. The office of Local Forecast Official was 

 created for such observers as had shown special fitness for fore- 

 cast work, and they were assigned to duty at the more important 

 agricultural, commercial, or maritime centres, with instructions 

 to carefully study the local climatology of their sections, so that 

 products that are indigenous to limited areas, or interests which 

 are of special importance to particular sections, might have such 

 application of the weather forecasts as the intimate personal 

 attentions of a competent local official could give. 



The changes enumerated have been carefully tested and found 

 to be beneficent in purpose, and worthy of continued and per- 

 manent application. Thus has the forecasting system of to-day 

 slowly developed during the past twenty-five years. Is it not 

 the essential feature of the Weather Bureau ? Is it not the 

 nucleus around which all departments of thought and study must 

 rotate and become auxiliary, if the original intent of Congress, 

 made manifest by the establishment of a national storm-warning 

 system, is to be carried forward to as successful an operation as 

 the present knowledge of the physics of the air will permit ? It 

 is hoped that discoveries may be made relative to the controlling 

 and modifying forces of storms which shall raise the standard of 

 forecasting accuracy attained by our most expert officials, who 

 have had all the benefits to be derived from many years of 

 patient and intelligent observation of storms, from the time of 

 their inception in, or entrance within our daily observed and 

 charted territory, until they have been dissipated or have passed 

 eastward beyond our range of vision. 



It may be well to consider what class of forecasts can be most 

 successfully made by our more or less empirical methods, the 

 object being to extend the work along such lines of activity as 

 promise the most beneficial results. 



As to this proposition it is doubtless conceded by all that when 

 pronounced high and low-pressure areas dominate the weather 

 conditions and the changes in wind, temperature and weather 

 are characterised by such force and degree as to render them 

 destructive to lives and property, a forecaster of average ability 

 and well-balanced judgment is able to make nearly or quite as 

 accurate a forecast as when the air pressure is quite uniformly 

 distributed and all changes of weather are so slight as to be of no 

 importance. 



If, then, a destructive frost or cold wave can be predicted as 

 easily as a change of a few degrees in temperature, and if the 

 coming of high winds and gales are as easily foretold as that of 

 a gentle zephyr, it is evident which class of forecasts should 

 receive the greater attention. The public care comparatively 

 little for predictions of moderate changes, and but little credit 

 attaches to the Bureau when such forecasts are verified ; but when 

 great heat, cold waves or violent winds are on the programme, 

 a vital interest is felt in the subject, and the accurate forecasting 

 of such conditions is the gauge by which the public measures 

 the usefulness of the Bureau. 



Horticulturists and the growers of tobacco and cranberries 

 realise the vast benefit to be derived from accurate frost predic- 

 tions, and I will give a brief statement of what I believe to be 

 original ideas introduced into the making of frost forecasts while 

 in charge of the State Weather Service of Wisconsin, a State 

 including within its domain the largest area of cranberry marshes 

 in the world, and also including an extensive area devoted to 

 the cultivation of tobacco. Heretofore I believe that only the 

 air conditions have been taken into consideration in the making 

 of frost forecasts — such as pressure, temperature, relative 

 humidity, cloudiness, and wind velocity. As a result of my in- 

 vestigations, systematically prosecuted for three years, I found 

 that the conditions of the soil were equally as important as 

 those of the air. 



