2 THE RISK OF BLOCKADE 



the effect of war on the general life of the people and on 

 the industrial and commercial situation upon which 

 the existence of the nation ultimately depends. The 

 strength that Germany has shown, her capacity to 

 maintain the offensive even when cut off from the mass 

 of her foreign trade, have not been wholly due to her 

 natural resources, but have, in the main, been brought 

 about by deliberate prevision of the conditions that 

 war would create and by the preparation of the whole 

 fabric of the community for the shock, in which pre- 

 paredness the position of agriculture and the question 

 of food supplies have been matters of prime importance. 

 So it must become for us ; whether we like it or not the 

 possibilities of war have definitely re-entered our scheme 

 of existence, and the consequences of war will depend 

 upon the clearness and forethought with which we pre- 

 pare for it in our social organization. The question of 

 our dependence upon foreign supplies is not solely a 

 matter of whether we can get the food necessary to 

 maintain our population, though submarine warfare 

 has developed so rapidly that we must be prepared for 

 a much more effective blockade of the British Islands 

 that will only allow a few food ships to slip through. 

 Even the course of the present war has shown us 

 how narrow the margin of safety may become ; in 

 May, 1915, the price of English wheat rose to 68s. 

 per quarter ; in February, 1916, it is already as high as 

 635., very largely because of the wholesale withdrawal 

 of freight for war purposes. A little further destruc- 

 tion of shipping or increase of danger to cargoes afloat 

 and the price might rise to a level that would so 

 disturb the internal economy of the nation as to 

 hamper it grievously in the prosecution of the war. 



