Some Present-Da\) Policies. 39 



an even less secure basis than the chances of the market. 

 The proof is to be found in the fact that the guarantees 

 have done nothing to maintain the increased cultivation 

 enforced during the War. No farmer who knows his 

 business is going to plan his operations ahead on the 

 confidence engendered by a policy of guaranteed prices 

 for wheat and oats. 



Not only do I believe that the policy of guarantees will 

 fail to achieve its avowed object of giving such confidence 

 to the farmers as will induce them to continue cultivation 

 on the strength of its promises, but I believe it is positively 

 harmful to the industry. It is meant to stereotype the 

 present organisation of the industry, and that organisation 

 I believe to be incapable of facing successfully the problems 

 which confront it. It is like an attempt to shore up a 

 falling building with timber props. To endeavour to carry 

 on an industry that is not making adequate use of its 

 productive forces by maintaining artificial price levels, 

 cannot be made a permanent and sound policy in any 

 industry. If the agricultural industry cannot be made to 

 stand on its own feet, under the present organisation, no 

 State crutches will enable it to keep erect and make pro- 

 gress. The policy of guaranteed prices carries with it 

 no promise of increased efficiency, and no power to enforce 

 better methods. Rather does it tend the other way. It 

 leads farmers to concentrate all their efforts on the 

 maintenance of artificial prices when they should be 

 turning all their energies to reducing costs and increasing 

 output. " In 1907 it was estimated that the value of the 

 annual production of British agriculture amounted to only 

 £go per person engaged. The output per man in many 



