228 



FORESTRY AND IRRIGATION 



May 



of intensive production in the Southern 

 States are more widely scattered with 

 reference to shipping ports along the 

 coast and Mississippi River. 



There are also tabulations showing 

 by geographical subdivisions the rela- 

 tive positions of the different territories 

 as contributors to the timber product 

 and the changes that have taken place 

 in this relative position, as far as the 

 defective census figures indicate. At 

 least the general tendency of this change 

 in the four principal sections may be 

 seen in this tabulation of the percentage 

 of total lumber production contributed 

 by them : 



As supplies gave out, the Northeast- 

 ern States reduced their cut; as railroad 

 development increased, the Lake States 

 increased their cut until, in 1890, the 

 highest mark was reached and the de- 

 cline began ; the Southern States then in- 

 creased their cut in proportion. These 

 changes in location are interesting and 

 significant, but for our purpose of fore- 

 casting the future, we are concerned 

 only with the supplies as a whole. 



Since, owing to change in the stand- 

 ard of the commercial log;, owing to 

 closer utilization and to more careful 

 exploitation and manufacture, supplies 

 usually hold out longer than antici- 

 pated, it will be perfectly safe to accept 

 the writer's higher estimate, and yet 

 find the situation unsatisfactory. For 

 even if we double this estimate, it is ap- 

 parent that with a cut of fort} 7 billion 

 feet, increasing at the rate of at least 5 

 per cent per annum, we do not have 30 

 years' supply of old stock in sight, a 

 serious enough situation to make desir- 

 able a more serious, statesmanlike, and 

 businesslike consideration of the for- 

 estry problem than it has received 

 hitherto. 



We admit that both the census com- 

 piler and the writer are mainly guessing 

 at the amount of standing timber, but 

 there are enough data at the basis of 

 these guesses to render them worthy of 

 consideration. 



The census brings the information 

 that the stumpage on the lumberman's 

 holdings averages 6, 700 feet, B. M., per 

 acre, or in the Eastern States an aver- 

 age of somewhat less than 5,000 feet, 

 and somewhat less than 25,000 feet in 

 the Pacific States. The compiler com- 

 ments correctly that ' ' the average stand 

 of timber per acre, being that of selected 

 tracts owned by lumbermen is, of course, 

 higher than the average of the country 

 or state." 



For the purpose of a possibility not 

 any more probability calculation we 

 may assume that the entire forest area 

 of the United States at one time, say 

 only fifty years ago, contained this aver- 

 age stand. With such extravagant as- 

 sumptions we may be justified in assum- 

 ing the area involved as 500 million 

 acres, the potential timber area deter- 

 mined by the writer, rather than the 

 700 million acres claimed by the U. S. 

 Chief Geographer, in which all waste 

 land is included, we would then find a 

 total original stand of 3,350 billion feet. 

 Assuming again that the consumption 

 of 40 billion at present has grown to 

 that amount by only a 3 per cent rate 

 (instead of the more likely 5 per cent) 

 from the original figure, then we would 

 have had a total aggregate cut during 

 the 50 years of round 1,115 billion feet, 

 and if the increasing rate of consump- 

 tion continued, the balance would be 

 used up in less than 35 years. 



The 250 million acres of farms cut 

 out from the forest, mostly wastefully 

 logged and largely burned in log-roll- 

 ing bees, may be assumed to have fur- 

 nished the requirements of the preced- 

 ing period. 



These probability calculations merely 

 show that our guesses at the amount of 

 standing timber are not entirely unrea- 

 sonable, and they certainly lend color 

 to the assertion that unless very radical 

 changes in use and exploitation take 

 place, our virgin supplies will certainly 

 be used up within less than a genera- 



