1908 



THE GOYKKXf >KS' O >.\TKK 



327 



a final winter in the near future. Quite at 

 variance with this, I have come to believe 

 that the earth arose from a regenerative 

 process and that it offers a fair prospect of 

 fitness for habitation for ages yet to come. 

 If this be true, it is eminently fitting that 

 our race should give a due measure of 

 thought to the ulterior effects of its actions. 



It is one of the latest conceptions of 

 geology that climatic conditions have been 

 of the same order as at present from early 

 eras, in the large view, in spite of some 

 notable variations, and that this uniformity 

 is the result of a profound regulative sys- 

 tem which has sufficed to keep the tempera- 

 tures of the earth's surface and the consti- 

 tution of the earth's atmosphere within the 

 narrow range congenial to life for a vast 

 period. As a result there has been no break 

 in the continuity of land life since it came 

 into being eras ago. It appears further that 

 the sources of supply of the vital elements 

 are still adequate, and are likely to be so 

 for long ages, that the regulative system is 

 still in effective control, and that a vast 

 future of habitability may fairly be pre- 

 dicted. Whether you are prepared to ac- 

 cept so large a view of the habitable future 

 or not, I trust you will strike hands with 

 me in the conviction that the probabilities 

 of the future are at least so great as to 

 render imperative the serious consideration 

 of our obligations toward it. 



Let us turn at once to the basal factor in 

 the problem, the rainfall, the soil, and soil- 

 wastage, the special theme of this hour. 

 The rainfall is an inherited asset, the soil 

 is an inherited asset, even a little soil is an 

 asset, but reckless soil-wastage is a serious 

 error. Soils are the product of the atmos- 

 phere and its waters modifying the rock 

 surface. When the atmospheric waters 

 have aided the air in producing soil by rock 

 decay they pass, on the one hand, into 

 plants or back to the surface soil and 

 thence through these again to the atmos- 

 phere by evaporation, or, on the other hand, 

 they pass on down to the ground-waters 

 and thence into the streams, furnishing in 

 them the basis fur water-foods, of p<i\ver. 

 and for navigation. Here is a good deed 

 soil production followed by a laudable 

 course either up or down with beneficent 

 results in either course. The alternative is 

 to rush away as !" H cru-ive ll< "<1- im tin- 

 surface, wasting suil and plant food. Bully- 

 ing the surface, choking the ravines, flood- 

 ing the valley*-, -ilting the pools, filling the 

 reservoir-, sweeping out the dams, barring 

 the streams and clogging the deltas. If it 

 shall be found that all or nearly all the 

 waters should go into the soil and thence 

 into the underdrainage, o ming out slowly 

 rui'l Meadily by seepage and by springs into 

 the Streams, the-e -trcam- should present 

 nearly ideal on-diiion- for water-food, for 

 water-powir. and for river-navigation. Tin- 

 solution of the soil problem may tin 

 hi-, in large part, the -' lution of the wl 



compli \ of problem-, of which navigation is 

 the last term. It may thus pi I the 



key problem. 



We have as yet no accurate measure of 

 the rate of soil production. We merely 

 know that it is very slow. It varies obvi- 

 ously with the kind of rock. Some of our 

 soils are derived from material already re- 

 duced to a finely pulveri/ed condition. 

 Such are the lowland accumulations from 

 highland wash. Such also is the glacial 

 drift, rock Hour rasped from the face of 

 the rock by the glacial file and ground up 

 with old soils. Soils may be developed 

 from such a base of half-prepared material 

 with relative rapidity, but observation 

 shows that even on these, when the slope is 

 considerable, wind, wash and cropping re- 

 move the surface much too fast for stable 

 fertility. But for average rock, under ordi- 

 nary favorable conditions, in our range of 

 climate, the usual estimate has been a foot 

 of waste in 4,000 to 6,000 years, which in- 

 cludes channel cutting and bank-under- 

 mining. These are too rapid for ordinary 

 soil waste and replacement under our nor- 

 mal conditions. Without any pretensions 

 to a close estimate, I should be unwilling 

 to name a mean rate of soil-formation 

 greater than one foot in 10,000 years on the 

 basis of observations since the glacial per- 

 iod. I suspect that if we could positively 

 determine the time taken in the formation 

 of the four feet of soil next to the rock 

 over our average domain, where such depth 

 obtains, it would be found above rather 

 than below 40.000 years. Under -uch an 

 estimate, to preserve a good working depth, 

 surface wastage should not exceed some 

 such rate as one inch in a thousand years. 

 If one chooses to indulge in a more liberal 

 estimate of the soil- forming rate, it will 

 still appear, under any intelligent estimate, 

 that surface wastage is a serious menace to 

 the retention of our soils under present 

 modes of management. Historical evidence 

 enforces this danger. In the Orient there 

 are large tracts almost absolutely bare of 

 soil on which stand ruins which imply for- 

 mer flourishing populations. Other long- 

 tilled lamN bear -imilar testimony. It 11111-1 

 be noted that more than loss of fertility is 

 here menaced. It is the lo-- of ihe -ojl- 

 1-ody itself, a loss almost beyond repair. 

 When our -oil- are gone, we too n t go, 

 unless we shall find s, , n u- way to feed 

 raw nek or its equivalent. The imnn 

 tonnag- :. d > >i:t to , 



iiially by our rivers, even when allow- 

 ance is in. laudable wa-h. and I 

 material derived from the river channd-. 

 i- an imprcs-ive uarning of the danger of 



Xor is tin- all ; the 



wash from one acre is often made the 



: for another acre, -al. 



Bother's gain, but 



all too dis- 



a-i 



If the atmo-pheric waters may not run 



