THE WAR AND AGRICULTURE 401 



is apparently some difference of opinion here between the Govern- 

 ment and the Board of Agriculture, as the former is responsible 

 for the first part of the answer and the latter for the second part. 

 If the opinion of the Board turns out to be correct, and wheat 

 is a profitable crop, then the Government would not be called 

 upon to pay anything, even if they did not guarantee a minimum 

 price. 



The reply to the second question seems to suggest that the 

 Government see no necessity either for farmers to increase their 

 wheat area or to hold this year's crop in stack, for they say 

 emphatically " that farmers would best serve the national 

 interests by dealing with their wheat crops this year exactly as 

 they would have done in normal circumstances." 



In face of this, and assuming, as we must do, that the Govern- 

 ment are in a better position to judge than any individuals can 

 be, my advice to farmers merely coincides with the opinion 

 expressed by the Government do not increase your wheat 

 area, or, in other words, deal with your wheat crop as under 

 normal circumstances. 



Now, what are the probabilities of the price of wheat rising 

 or falling next year ? It is probable that Germany and Austria 

 may be importers on a much larger scale than they have been in 

 recent years. It is also possible that Russia, the Balkan States, 

 and France may not be able to plant so much wheat as usual, but 

 it is too early yet to express a definite opinion on this point. 

 On the other hand, the Governments of our Dominions Overseas 

 are all encouraging larger wheat areas in their respective countries, 

 and it is probable that the United States will also expand their 

 area. 



The following appeared in The Times of the 26th September : 



"It is understood that the Russian Government has now 

 withdrawn the prohibition of grain exports, so that a further 

 source of supply is open to this country. t 



" Enormous supplies of grain are now in sight. Not only 

 are there vast stocks in this country, augmented by cargoes- 

 diverted from Germany, but grain continues to come in large 

 quantities from the Atlantic and Pacific Coasts of North 

 America, India and Argentina. Only in Australia, following 

 the action of the Government in seizing supplies, is the 

 export business at a standstill." 



We have often been told to " wait and see." I would suggest 

 we act on this advice now. A great deal may happen between 

 now and the period when it is time to begin spring planting, 

 and farmers can then put in larger areas of barley, oats, and 

 potatoes, all of which will be ready for consumption as early as 

 wheat sown this autumn. Farmers can also plant spring wheat, 

 if necessary, although my experience of spring wheat has been 

 that it is very subject to blight and generally gives a poor yield. 

 If the worst comes to the worst, if there be a shortage of food- 



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