254 THE POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY. 



now be more numerous than it has become with the assistance 

 of immigration. 



If we take the native white population of 5,745,348 in the year 

 1810 and give it an increase each succeeding decade of 34 per cent, 

 with 28 per cent for the decade that included the civil war, we 

 have for the year 1890 57,048,753, which is 3,064,863 in excess of the 

 54,983,890 total whites as given by the census of that year. In 

 other words, the natives multiplying at less than their old rate 

 would outnumber the present native and foreign white population 

 by over three millions. 



The rate of 28 per cent for the decade that included- the civil 

 war is lower than the rate of native increase during the Revolu- 

 tion, and the Revolution lasted seven years, while the civil war 

 lasted only four. The rate of 34 per cent for the other decades is 

 also quite conservative. For twenty years, when immigration was 

 at a minimum, the natives had exceeded this rate, and as their rate 

 was steadily rising there is every probability that they would soon 

 have exceeded 35 per cent, and reached 36 or more before 1890. 

 An average rate of 35 per cent, with 28 for the civil war, would 

 have given 60,098,117 whites in 1890, which is 5,114,227 in excess 

 of the total whites as reported by the census, and lacks only about 

 two millions of equaling the whole aggregate population of black, 

 white, Chinese, Japanese, and civilized Indians. 



The estimates of Jefferson and others by which they prophe- 

 sied a great increase for the future were based on rates much 

 higher than this. The country was new, with ample room for de- 

 velopment, and growing more and more prosperous. European 

 countries with dense populations and inferior natural resources 

 have increased their rate within that time, and why should not the 

 United States ? 



Some of these old countries increase their rate in spite of the 

 fact that thousands of emigrants are leaving them every year. 

 We have a new country, not half developed, with immigrants pour- 

 ing into us, and yet our rate has been steadily falling for sixty 

 years. Since 1830 the rate of increase of the whole aggregate pop- 

 ulation, black, white, Chinese, Japanese, and civilized Indians, to- 

 gether with all the immigrants that have been poured upon us and 

 the accessions from the new territories, Louisiana, Florida, Texas, 

 New Mexico, and California, has seldom been appreciably higher, 

 and is in most cases considerably lower, than the old rate of in- 

 crease of the native whites from 1750 to 1830, when immigration 

 was at a minimum. All the immigrants and all their increase can 

 not make up for the loss of the old rate of increase of the natives. 



The following table shows that in only two decades, 1840 to 1850 

 and 1850 to 1860, was the rate of increase of the whole population 

 higher than it had been among the natives alone before 1830. In 



