FORECASTING THE PROGRESS OF INVENTION. 307 



similarity between the boundary of long and narrow heads on 

 our map of cephalic index of Brittany, and the cross-hatched lines 

 and tints on the map of physical geography of France on page 

 291. Note how it cuts across diagonally from northwest to south- 

 east, parallel to the course of the Seine. Here the economic at- 

 traction in favor of the invasion of Brittany ceased, and at the 

 same time the displaced natives found a defensible position. Pre- 

 vented from extension in this direction, the Normans henceforth 

 turned toward the Seine, where, in fact, their influence is most 

 apparent at the present time. Paris, the Mecca of all invaders, 

 toled them away, and Brittany was saved. 



FORECASTING THE PROGRESS OF INVENTION. 



BY WILLIAM BAXTER, JB. 



M ^HE great progress made during the last fifty years in the 

 -L domain of science and invention has aroused a very general 

 desire among intelligent people to know what the future has in 

 store, and in many cases the desire has become so strong as to 

 develop prophetic tendencies. Whenever a banquet is given in 

 commemoration of some scientific event, or upon the anniversary 

 of some ancient and honorable society, the orator of the evening 

 is sure to dwell at considerable length upon the great discoveries 

 that are still to come. By contrasting the extraordinary advances 

 made during the last century with the comparatively limited 

 progress of all previous time, and by showing that the rate of 

 advancement has been continually increasing during the latter 

 period, he arrives at the conclusion that in the years to come 

 development will increase in a compound ratio, and the discov- 

 eries will become so numerous and so great as to dwarf into 

 insignificance all that has been accomplished up to the present 

 time. 



Writers who dwell upon these glorious achievements of man- 

 kind in modern times follow the same vein, and make equally 

 extravagant predictions as to the future. If these writers and 

 orators would stop when they reach this point in their medita- 

 tions they would be wise, since it is a self-evident fact that prog- 

 ress in science and invention has been increasing very rapidly 

 during the last fifty or sixty years, and certainly there is no rea- 

 son to suppose that we have reached the end, and that henceforth 

 development will be very slow; but at this point the spirit of 

 prophecy seizes them, and they proceed to describe the wonders 

 yet unseen. It is here that they almost invariably fail. They 

 would not be satisfied if they assumed that future progress would 



