THE QUESTION OF WHEAT. 763 



It must be admitted that there are unusual difficulties in esti- 

 mating such a crop as that of wheat. It is not purely a commercial 

 crop, where the whole product comes into the market to be recorded 

 commercially, as is the case with cotton. A part is consumed on 

 the farm, another part is retained for seed, and the proportion of 

 crop brought to market varies with the price offered and the necessi- 

 ties of the farmer. There are many opportunities of error in arriving 

 at the resultant of these patent conditions, without undertaking to 

 measure other influences that tend to check or promote deliveries and 

 free movement of wheat from the producer to the market, not to 

 speak of the international competition that overshadows the whole 

 subject. It is not a little absurd to dogmatize in the face of so many 

 uncertainties, and all the more absurd when a limited space of time 

 is taken for study. In commerce, the shortest period on which to 

 determine the trend of movement should not be less than twenty 

 years, and as many more years as the returns will permit strengthen 

 the argument. In agriculture the same rule holds. There is an 

 undoubted periodicity in the ebb and flow of industry and agricul- 

 ture, of commercial and financial movement waves of prosperity 

 and depression. It would be as misleading to accept a year of de- 

 pression for a standard as to apply a year of prosperity. In the wish 

 to throw some statistical light upon the position of wheat, I have 

 prepared some notes upon the conditions surrounding the production 

 of this important cereal in different parts of the world, and the con- 

 ditions controlling its commercial movement in some of the leading 

 markets. As the trade returns of import are more accurate than 

 those of export, I begin with a consideration of the great free wheat 

 market of Great Britain. 



In 1849 the duty upon imported wheat was fixed at the nominal 

 rate of one shilling per quarter. In ten years the trade had adapted 

 itself to this rate, and no disturbing influence was exerted by any 

 threatened change of rate, so that 1860 may be taken as a fair start- 

 ing point for this examination. In that year the United Kingdom 

 imported 25,484,151 quarters (one quarter equals eight bushels) of 

 foreign wheat. Of this quantity the larger part sixty-seven per 

 cent was obtained frm European countries, of which the more im- 

 portant were Germany and Russia. Outside of Europe the leading 

 sources of supply were the United States, Egypt, and British North 

 America. The general relation of those countries is shown as 

 follows : 



Russia 5,638,299 quarters. 



Germany 6,542,601 " 



United States 6,497,335 " 



Egypt 854,815 " 



British North America 794,829 " 



