STUMPAGE PRICES 209 



general commodity prices. The Prussian and Saxon figures are 

 perhaps most interesting because they cover the longest period. 

 For instance, during the period 1830 to 1875 Saxon wood values 

 increased at the rate of 4I per cent compound interest annually. 

 In Prussia, which has poorer markets, the rate of increase during 

 the same period was 2^ per cent. For the 70-year period from 

 1830 to 1900 the rate of annual increase in Saxony was a trifle 

 less than 3 per cent while Prussia maintained a rate of 2| per cent 

 for this longer period too. Hence Doctor Fernow's statement 

 that German stumpage prices have been increasing at the rate of 

 2 per cent per annum, compound interest, for the last hundred 

 years is amply conservative. Nor is the force of this vitiated by 

 corresponding increases in the prices of other commodities. On 

 the contrary general commodity prices decreased quite steadily 

 from 1820 to 1895 with a few minor exceptions. Their rise during 

 the Great War is, of course, due to special causes outside the usual 

 laws of supply and demand. 



Our own experience substantiates European experience. 

 Wliite pine stumpage, for example, increased at the rate of 6^ 

 per cent, compound interest, in Michigan from 1865 to 1905 and 

 at the annual rate of 7^ per cent in Minnesota from 1880 to 

 1905. These increases are all the more remarkable in the face of 

 a marked decrease in general commodity prices, from 1865-1895. 



Another point still more clearly brought out in the chart is 

 that the rate of increase has not been uniform. There have been 

 distinct ups and downs. For example, the effect of the Franco- 

 Prussian War is clearly shown in both the Saxon and Prussian 

 curve — a sharp rise followed by a drop and that in turn giving 

 place to a slower recovery. In the same way 1907 marked the 

 high water mark for stumpage prices in the United States until the 

 rise brought about by the Great War. In fact the period from 

 1908 to 1914 was one of distinct stagnation if not depression in 

 American lumber circles. 



But in spite of occasional drops the general increase is so appar- 

 ent that it may safely be laid do^vn as a general law that the trend 

 of stumpage prices has been upward the world over for the last 

 hundred years in spite of the opening up of many new timber 



