xii.] . THE INDUCTIVE OK INVERSE METHOD. 261 



ponderance one way or the other is some evidence of 

 connection, and in the absence of better evidence should 

 be taken into account. 



The grand object of seeking to estimate the probability 

 of future events from past experience, seems to have been 

 entertained by James Bernoulli and De Moivre, at least 

 such was the opinion of Condorcet ; and Bernoulli may be 

 said to have solved one case of the problem. 1 The English 

 writers Bayes and Price are, however, undoubtedly the 

 first who put forward any distinct rules on the subject. 2 

 Condorcet and several other eminent mathematicians ad- 

 vanced the mathematical theory of the subject ; but it was 

 reserved to the immortal Laplace to bring to the subject 

 the full power of his genius, and carry the solution of the 

 problem almost to perfection. It is instructive to observe 

 that a theory which arose from petty games of chance, the 

 rules and the very names of which are forgotten, gradually 

 advanced, until it embraced the most sublime problems of 

 science, and finally undertook to measure the value and 

 certainty of all our inductions. 



Fortuitous Coincidences. 



We should have studied the theory of probability to 

 very little purpose, if we thought that it would furnish 

 us with an infallible guide. The theory itself points 

 out the approximate certainty, that we shall sometimes 

 be deceived by extraordinary fortuitous coincidences. 

 There is no run of luck so extreme that it may not 

 happen, and it may happen to us, or in our time, as 

 well as to other persons or in other times. We may be 

 forced by correct calculation to refer such coincidence? 

 to a. necessary cause, and yet we may be deceived. All 

 that the calculus of probability pretends to give, is the 

 result in the long run, as it is called, and this really means 

 in an infinity of cases. During any finite experience, 

 however long, chances may be against us. Nevertheless 

 the theory is the best guide we can have. If we always 

 think and act according to its well-interpreted indications, 



1 Todhun tor's History, pp. 378, 379. 



2 Philosophical Transactions, [1763], vol. liii. p. 370, ami [1764], 

 vol. liy. p. 296. Todhtmter, pp. 294-300 



