Program is small when compared with possible changes in gross income 

 for the County caused by changes in prices or cow numbers. 



The change in farm expenditures also appears to be greater in magni- 

 tude than the changes in gross farm income. These changes are approxi- 

 mated in Table 10. For both the high- and low-income models and for 

 both short- and long-run conditions, expenditures for living expenses or 

 savings would increase substantially because of the Program. Naturally, 

 with gross income relatively the same with or without the Program, and 

 with no need for expenditures for operating and new capital goods, a 

 shift in expenditure pattern from production goods to consumption goods 

 would occur. 



As shown in Table 10, expenditures for remaining farmers resulting 

 largely from purchases of hay will increase under Soil Bank conditions but 

 will not compensate for the large reduction in operating expenses associ- 

 ated with enrolled farms. Capital expenditures decline somewhat with the 

 impact of the Program but require some outlay for real estate debt pay- 

 ments. 



With the change in the income expenditure pattern anticipated with 

 the Program, agricultural dealers and providers of agricultural services 

 to farmers would feel a decline in gross income. However, providers of 

 consumer goods and services would benefit considerably by the shift of 

 agricultural units into the Soil Bank. 



*D" 



In 1959. Expenditures for both the low and the high resource use models 

 are predicted to be the same in 1959. Expenditures for production goods 

 v/ould decline by $33,800, and this decline would be noticeable by local 

 suppliers of agricultural production goods. Because of Soil Bank enroll- 

 ment, expenditures of Soil Bank Cooperators for consumption goods would 

 increase by $37,000 or by about 2 and ^/o times the pre-Program amount. 



In the Long Run. With the high resource use model, consumption ex- 

 penditures would increase an average of about $23,000 annually from 

 1960-72. Farm operating cost expenditures would drop about the same 

 amount on a yearly basis. This estimate includes the increased costs 

 associated with the remaining farmers. Capital expenditures, which would 

 be largely for debt retirement or real estate, would be down by about 

 $13,000 per year. 



With the low resource use model, long-run living expenditures would in- 

 crease an average of about $33,000 per year above what they would have 

 been had there been no Program. Operating expenses would have shown 

 a negligible drop of about $4,000 annually. In other words, if the low 

 resource use model closely fits the true resource structure, dealers who 

 provide agricultural production goods and services would experience little 

 1 eduction in gross income caused by the Soil Bank enrollment. 



NONPARTICIPATING FARMERS 



Hay Purchases 



The major impact of the Program on nonparticipating farmers is in 

 the influence it has on the hay supply. Many dairy operators supplement 

 the hay supply produced on their own land. Often a neighboring field is 

 rented or a stand of hay purchased. A close inspection of several towns 

 indicates that a considerable amount of hayland formerly rented by dairy- 



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