from 1939 to 1954 and projections to 1959 with and without ejffects of 

 Soil Bank. Acres are plotted on a logarithmic scale so the slope of the 

 line expresses the rate of change. Assuming that the 1949 to 1954 rate 

 of decline in cropland harvested and cropland pasture was representative 

 of what would have happened between 1955 and 1959 had there been no 

 Soil Bank Program (line B), then it would appear that the Program had 

 little or no effect on cropland used for agricultural production. This is 

 demonstrated graphically by the lower broken line B in Figure 1 con- 

 necting the 1954 Census acreage data with the estimated acres of crop- 

 land in Coos County aside from the acreage in the Program in 1959. 



Other rates of decline also can be used for appraising the effect of the 

 Program on cropland acreage. Assuming the 1944-49 period rather than 

 1949-54 period as the tvpical rate of decline, conclusions as to the effect 

 of the Program would be considerably different, as the Program would 

 then appear to be very effective in reducing acreage of cropland. This is 

 demonstrated in Figure 1 when the 1954 acreage of cropland reported 



Figure 1. Changes in total cropland acres, 1939-54, and projections 

 to 1959, Coos County, New Hampshire* 



70,000 

 60,000 



YEAR 



A. Connects the 1954 Census acre total with the 1959 acre total constructed from 

 the town property lists of cropland including those acres that went into the 

 Conservation Reserve. 



B. This line is an extension of the same rate of change that occurred between 1949 

 and 1954 and connects the 1954 Census acre total with the constructed 1959 acre 

 total minus the acres that went into the Conservation Reserve. 



* Data 1939-54 from Agricultural Census, Bu. of Censua, U. S. Dept. of Commerce; 

 and 1959 data estimated from farm survey. 



15 



