ation by remaining farmers has not taken up all the cropland released. 

 Unorganized units have been disappearing with the cropland reverting to 

 woods. A realistic view of the effect of the Program must include current 

 trends. 



Since dairying is the predominant enterprise in the County, trends in 

 the dairy farm sector represent dominant trends in the area. From 1940 

 to 1959, the number of herds dropped from 746 to 345, an average of 

 about 21 herds per year (Appendix Table 2). If only herds with 4 or 

 more cows are considered, the average herd loss over the 19-year span 

 was 17 herds per year. This rate of decline parallels closely the rate de- 

 termined from Agricultural Census farm numbers for the period 1949-54, ^ 

 Commercial dairy farm units declined by 88 over the 5-year period. The 

 average decline is 18 commercial units per year. 



By assuming that an annual decline of 18 farms (with 4 or more cows 

 or equivalent) would occur during the time span of the Program, it is 

 possible to appraise its net effect on commercial type units. Twenty-four 

 cf the 26 units with 4 or more cows or equivalent were enrolled in the 

 1959 Program (Appendix Table 3). In addition to these operations, 6 

 other farms ceased operation but did not enroll in the Program. This 

 makes a total of 30 farms which either stopped or underwent abrupt 

 changes in operation in 1959. Four of the 24 enrolled farms were poultry 

 farms, which continued operation after enrollment, and 2 were cattle oper- 

 ations, which continued operation on a modified scale after enrollment. 

 Two other cooperators changed farms. If 18 farms normally would be 

 expected to stop operation each year, the maximum net effect of the Pro- 

 gram in reducing commercial farm numbers would be 12 commercial-type 

 units. But the probability that just 18 farmers would cease operation in 

 any one year is exceedingly small. During many of the years over which 

 the trend was established, at times no or very few farmers would have 

 ceased operations, and during other select years, large numbers (50 or 

 more) would have ceased operations. There is insufficient information for 

 stating more definitely the number of farms that would have ceased oper- 

 ations during 1956-59 in absence of the Programs. It is clear that the 

 effect of the Program on farm numbers is something less than the 24 

 commercial units enrolled. The best available evidence indicates it to be 

 about 10 commercial sized units. 



Cropland on Enrolled Units 



Roughly 17 percent, or 5,204 acres, of Coos County cropland was en- 

 rolled in the Program (Appendix Tables 4 and 5). Of this acreage, 76 

 acres were enrolled by operators as parts of units, 1,889 as whole units 

 by farmers operating on a commercial basis, and 3,239 acres as whole 

 units by other landowners. As with rural units discussed in the preced- 

 ing section, the bulk of the cropland was enrolled in the 1959 Program. 

 About 75 percent of the cropland and 75 percent of the farm units were 

 enrolled in 1959. 



The effect of the Program on land employed in farm production can be 

 pictured as in Figure 1, which showed changes in acreage of cropland 



^ See 1950 Agricultural Census and 1954 Agricultural Census, Bu. of the Census 

 U. S. Dept. of Commerce. 



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