178 AMERICAN DIPLOMATIC QUESTIONS 



shipped to a vessel, might be enabled to reach their Atlantic 

 destination at less cost by the all-rail journey. Indeed, when 

 railroads have come into direct competition with water routes, 

 the latter have often declined in commercial importance. The 

 canal and river systems of the United States, once the commer- 

 cial highways of the nation, have, in many instances, become 

 virtually abandoned in the presence of competing railways. 



On the other hand, there is a great unknown quantity of 

 trade that may be promoted by this " marriage of the oceans." 

 With the Suez isthmus already pierced, there remains but the 

 breaking" of the Central American barrier to complete an open 

 road to vessels around the world in a comparatively straight 

 course. How far the realization of this prospect, so pleasing 

 to the imagination, is likely to prove commercially successful, 

 should be the subject of thorough, accurate, and scientific 

 investigation. An original outlay of two hundred millions is 

 too' great a sum to be hazarded without at least a fair promise 

 of return, a return that is susceptible of demonstration by 

 better evidence than mere conjecture or sentiment. 



The commercial aspect of the question is somewhat neu- 

 tralized, if not overshadowed, by military considerations. If 

 the canal is necessary for national defence, its probable suc- 

 cess or failure, as a commercial venture, is of little relative 

 importance. The original cost and the yearly outlay there- 

 after would be charged to the legitimate expense column. 

 However, estimates of the strategic value of the canal to the 

 United States involve inquiries which come more fittingly 

 under the third class of considerations relative to the " Canal 

 problem." 



3. With the physical elements of the problem removed, 

 and the practicability of the undertaking determined, there 

 still remain problems of utmost importance to be solved be- 

 fore connecting the oceans. These considerations are of a 

 political nature. What shall be the legal status of the canal 

 when constructed ? Shall it be open, like the high seas, to 

 the world's commerce ? Shall it be neutralized by common 

 pledge of all nations, or shall it be regarded as a private 

 waterway belonging to the United States ? 



