December 1, 1892.] 



KNOWLEDGE 



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and bounds. It was about 1874 that the depression set in 

 from which we have suffered more or less since. 



A good reflection of the state of trade is oflered by the 

 marriage rate. Naturally, when money is plentiful, more 

 people marry ; when scarce, fewer. Here {h) is the 

 marriage rate curve for England and Wales. Its waves 

 correspond very well with those in the curve of exports. 

 There was a great fall in the rate from that very 



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prosperous time, and the rate has not since recovered its 

 previous position. 



Look at the matter in another light -(curve r), that of the 

 railway traffic receipts per mile of railway (the unit here is 

 a thousand poimds). The story is similar. Notice, 

 however, tlmt we have the tirst wave culminating in 1876, 

 four years later than the great wave of exports. 



The exports curve does not enlighten us much as to 

 general increase or decrease of our trade, for this reason, 

 that it is a curve of values, and there has been a great fall 

 in prices since the seventies. Curves of volume would be 

 more instructive in this respect. 



It is interesting to notice the intervals between the wave- 

 crests. They are, in this period, about eight or nine 

 years ; taking the dates of the marriage rate curve, we 

 have 1865 to 1873 (eight years), 1882 (nine years). 



then, say, 1890 (eight years). Should this recurrence 

 continue, we should expect a crest about 1898 or 1899, 

 and the bottom of the trough, into which we are now 

 descending, a year or two from the present. The causes 

 of trade depression have, of course, been much discussed ; 

 over-production, protection abroad, bad harvests, dis- 

 turbances of the currency, are some of the causes that have 

 been suggested. But we will not here enter into this 

 question. 



It is well known that our national consumption of 

 alcoholic liquors depends very much on whether trade is 

 good or bad. Good times of trade are bad times of 

 drinking, as a rule. Here is a curve (<?) which shows 

 our drink bill since 1860 (in million pounds). It rises 

 rapidly to 1876 (when railway traffic receipts were at a 

 wave-crest), after which comes a fall. The next trade 

 wave is but slightly represented, but since 1886 there has 

 been a pronounced rise corresponding to the trade wave 

 which culminated in 1890. 



A curve (c) of spirits (British and foreign) retained for 

 home consumption in the United Kingdom shows very 

 much the same thing. (This refers to potable spirits 

 alone from 1877, and to millions of gallons.) Another 

 curve (»'') shows the spirits per head of population (in 

 gallons). Both of these culminate in 1875. 



Now it is often urged, somewhat confidently, that an in- 

 creaseofconsumptionof spirits, orofthedrinkbill. is no proof 

 of an increase of excessive drinking ; people are merely con- 

 suming more in a moderate way, it is said, in accordance 

 with their easier means. It is a significant fact, however, 

 which we meet on turning to the subject of apprehensions 

 for drunkenness (of which we give a diagram), that we find 

 waves in these closely corresponding to the waves of trade. 

 Here, for example (curve /) is a curve showing (in thou- 

 sands) the total apprehensions for this offence in England 

 and Wales since 1871. It has a wave-crest in ls76, then 

 in l^'Sl (a little after the trade wave-crest), and ends at, 

 or near, another crest. Again, look at the three curves 

 If, h, i, which relate to canvictions for drunkenness in three 

 great police divisions of England and Wales ; we again find 

 correspondence. The curve ,/ (once more) shows appre- 

 hensions in London. We may note that it continues 

 rising some time after the culmination of the very pros- 

 perous time to 1878, and that the next wave is hardly 

 represented m it. 



The general question as to whether drunkenness is 

 increasing or otherwise is a difficult one. Taking only short 

 periods, one may easily make mistakes. Thus, in 1880, a 

 person might say, " What a vast improvement lately ! " and 

 in 1890 or 1891 it might be said, " How terribly we are 

 deteriorating ! " These would be but half truths. 



The curves of drunkenness here given appear plainly to 

 mean some improvement in the period considered. For 

 they all either keep about a level, or tend to go down, and 

 we have to remember that the population has increased ; 

 so that unless we are to make the unlikely supposition of 

 a general increasing laxity in apprehension, there are fewer 

 people, proportionately, who transgress and attract the 

 attention of the police. 



On the other hand, if we measure drunkenness by the 

 consumption of spirits in a long period of years (say fifty), 

 we find the curve swaying now to the one side, now to the 

 other, yet, on the whole, departing in no continual way 

 from the curve of population (or fi'om the proportion of 

 one gallon per head). 



If some improvement is perceptible, it cannot be said 

 that the great tide of intemperance is being effectively 

 stayed. Should another time of good trade come like that 

 before 1872, dare we expect that our drink curves would 



