on 



♦ KNOWLEDGE ♦ 



[December 1, 1886. 



(if ever) safety is reached is increasing. By the suggested 

 improv'ements the rate of increase in the stakes is undoubtedly 

 diminished, but the rate at whicli the desired goal is 

 approached is diminished in equivalent degree. I scarcely 

 recommend any one to test any of these systems experi- 

 mentally, even though without any idea of putting them 

 into actual practice. It is easy enough to apply .such a 

 test by tossing a coin or cutting a pack a suiBcient number 

 of times. For, as the essential principle of all such systems 

 is that they depend on the improbability of an event whose 

 occurrence — when it does happen — will involve a heavy 

 loss — a less more than cancelling all preceding gains — it is 

 naturally likely that any moderately long series of trials 

 will seem to favour the theory, the fatal run not chancing 

 to show in a series of trials too short to give it a fair chance 

 of showing. 



It has been thus indeed that many fooli.sh folk have been 

 tempted to trust in a system which has brought them to 

 their ruin. Consider what an irony underlies the gambler's 

 faith in such systems. When he .starts with the hope of 

 winning, say, 10/., he is perhaps to some degi-ee doubtful ; 

 but he goes on until perhaps he is at such a stage that if he 

 .stopped he would be the loser of fifty or sixty pounds. Yet 

 such is his confidence in liis system that, although at this 

 stage he is in a very much worse po.sition than at the 

 beginning, the mere circumstance that he is working out a 

 system encourages him to persevere. And so he continues 

 until the time comes- as with due patience and perseverance 

 it inevitably must — when either the bank limit is reached 

 or his pockets are emptied. In one case he has to begin 

 again with a deficit against him much larger than any gain 

 he has probably made before ; in the second he has the 

 pleasant satisfaction of noting, perhaps, that if he had been 

 able to go on a little longer, fortune would (from his point 

 of view) have changed. Though as a matter of fact, whether 

 he had had a few hundreds of pounds more or not only affects 

 his fortunes in putting off a little longer the inevitable day 

 when the system fails and he is ruined. 



We may compare the trust in a .system to such trust as 

 a bettor on races might put in laying long odds — when the 

 odds are really long, but not quite so long as those he oilers. 

 Supposing a bettor to lay odds of 30 to 1 in sovereigns 

 systematically, when the true odds are 25 to 1, he will pro- 

 bably win his sovereign on the average twenty-five times in 

 twenty-six trials, but the 30/. he will have to pay in the 

 twenty-sixth case (on the average) will leave him 51. to the 

 bad on that set of trials, excellent though his chance of 

 success may appear at each separate trial. 



In fine, the moths who seek to gain wealth rapidly and 

 safely by gambling methods and systems are attracted almost 

 equally by two equally delusive flames. They either trust 

 in their own good luck, as in buying lottery tickets, backing 

 the favourite, or the like, hoping to win large sums for 

 small sums risked (these small sums, howe\-er, being always 

 in excess of the just value of the chance) ; or they trust in 

 the bad luck of others, as when they try delusive martin- 

 gales (though they never see what they are really doing in 

 such cases), or when they lay long odds (always longer than 

 the just odds), hoping to win many small sums at small risk 

 of losing large ones; or they combine both methods. In- 

 evitably, in the long run, they lose more in many small 

 sums than they get back in a few large ones; and they lose 

 more in a few large sums than they get back in many small 

 ones.^ They lose all round, yet they delude themselves all 

 round into the belief that they are wise. 



INDIAN MYTHS ABOUT THUNDER. 



By " Stella Occidess." 



IHE almost universal belief prevails among 

 the North American Indians that thunder 

 is a great bird. The Dacotahs explain in 

 this way the velocity with which thunder- 

 storms travel. A. large bird starts the 

 rumbling, and a number of smaller birds 

 keep it up ; hence the long duration of the 

 pi-als. The Indians say that the young birds, or thunders, 

 do the mischief, and are like the young men, who will not 

 listen to the words of wisdom. The old thunder, or bird, 

 does not kill anybody, nor do any kind of mischief.* 



The Dacotahs show a place near the source of the St. 

 Peter's, called Thunder-tracks, where the footprints of the 

 thunder-bird are seen in the rocks twenty-five miles apart.t 

 The great thunder-bird is actually supposed to have been 

 shot in Dacotah, .and the exact spot is shown. 



Mrs. Eastman says that there is no end to the fancies 

 entertained by the Sioux concerning thunder. They believe 

 a thunder-storm to be a struggle between Unk-ta-he, the 

 god of waters, and Wauhkeon, the thunder-bird, for the 

 command of their nation. The following story was related 

 by one of the oldest men in this tribe, who was revered as 

 a medicine man of great powers : — "Unk-ta-he is as power- 

 ful as the thunder-bird Waukheon. Each wants to be the 

 greatest god of the Dacotahs, and they have had many 

 battles. My father was a great medicine man ; he was 

 killed many years ago, and his spirit wandered about the 

 earth. The thunder-bird wanted him, and XTnk-fa-he 

 wanted him, for they said he would make a wonderful 

 medicine man. Some of the sons of Unk-ta-he fought 

 against the sons of the thunder-bird. The young thunder- 

 birds were killed, .and then Unk-ta-he took the spirit of my 

 father to teach him many mysterious things." t 



The Dacotah tribes likewise believed in a giant, named 

 Haokah. Tliis being possesses superhuman powers. He 

 dre.sses in many colours, and we.irs horns, or a forked hat, 

 to represent the lightning. With his hands he takes the 

 thunder and hurls it to the ground. His face is red on one 

 side and blue on the other, and his eyes are of diflerent 

 colours. He always carries a bow and arrow in his hand, 

 but never uses them, "as one look will kill any animal he 

 wants." His manifestations were foui'fold, and one of the 

 four winds was the drumstick he used to produce the 

 thunder.§ 



The C'hipeways represent thunder brandishing a rattle- 

 snake, the symbol of the electric flash, and sometimes they 

 call him the north-west wind, which usually brings the 

 thunderstorm in the region they inhabit. || Thunder 

 brandishing a i-attlesnake recalls a Passamaquoddy myth, 

 which relates how Glooskap changed " certain saucy Indians 

 into Eattlesnakes because they yelled at the thunder. 

 Long time ago the Rattlesnakes were Indians. They wei'e 

 very saucy. They had too much face. They could not be 

 put down by much, and they got up for very little. When 

 the great Flood was coming Glooskap told them about it. 

 They said they did not care. He told them the water 

 would come over their heads. They said that would be 

 very wet. He told them to be good, and pray. Then those 

 Indians hurrahed. He said, ' A great Flood is coming.' 

 Then they gave three cheers for the great Flood. He said, 



» Tylor, " Primitive Culture," vol. i., p. 363. 

 t EastmaD, " Legends of the Sioux," p. 71. 

 { Eastman, " Legends o£ the Sioux," p. 161. 



§ Brinton, "Myths of the New World," p. 164. Eastman, 

 " Legends of the Sioux," p. 1.58. 



II Brinton, " Myths of the New World," p. 182. 



