203 

 CEREAL PRODUCTION IN EUROPE. 



Russia, as we sec, is in the throes of revolution, 

 .and as you cannot have a revolution and have produc- 

 tion proceed, apace at the same time, there is every possi- 

 bility that many years will elapse before Russian cereals 

 svill enter to compete seriously with our own products. 



Rum <i nia and Hungary are likewise going; through 

 a period of re-organisation with disastrous effects on 

 their export trade. How long it will take tiiern to es- 

 tablish that degree of* tranquility and order essential to 

 trade both at home and abroad none can safely prognos- 

 ticate, but experience does not point to its being accom- 

 plished in the very near future. 



Undoubtedly in these regions, due to the relative 

 scarcity of sea transport as compared with that on the 

 ' land, the tendency will be to export any local surpluses 

 near the sea board, so that there is some likelihood of 

 the actual amount of exports really falling oif as order 

 is established, and it becomes possible to send supplies 

 to middle Europe to satisfy normal curreat demands 

 there . 



CONSUMERS AND CLIENTS. 



In regard to our clients, chiefly Great Britain and 

 including Belgium and the Netherlands, we cannot look 

 forward to greatly increased demand for our cereals 

 until normal life and business is established nor can 

 we hope to sell heavily to Germany via the Netherlands, 

 for that country imported little from us in normal times. 

 It is doubful whether Germany will prove a good 

 client, especially if anything tends to reduce her ma- 

 nufacturing industries, for which zones practical 1; all 

 the cereals imported were destined. Besides, agricul- 

 tural interests are very strongly organised, even nor- 

 mally, and as we have seen in the worst epochs of the 

 war, despite the enormously increased consumption Ger- 

 many has been able to keep herself practically self- 

 sustaining. To do this with a depleted rural population 

 in times of war indicates that in times of peace sh*>, will 

 be still capable at least of maintaining her population, 

 and if internal strife persists then th^re will be no ques- 

 tion of imports except for the population of the towns 

 immediately near the ports, which in any case will re- 

 quire limited quantities. 



Regarding France, which normally grows sufficient 

 for her own consumption, although she has imported 



