212 



with her bonuses on home produce is to permit the sale 

 *f cereals in England at less than the actual cost of 

 production at home, or the price can fall to the extent 

 of the difference between the bonus or price ^uaranteed 

 and the actual cost of production. 



What we have to fear is not the limitation of our 

 exports or the action of any tariff reform, but tbe low 

 price of cereals in the importing markets. 



LOW PRICES FOR CEREALS IN STGtfE. 



It is true that if the price is ver}^ low it will effec- 

 tively prevent any extension of cereal production m 

 England after the period of State guaranteed prices,, 

 but likewise it will imply various years of precar ; ous 

 prices for our own farmers. 



In this respect I am inclined to prognosticate a 

 period of relatively profitless cereal growing. On one- 

 hand, we have the promise of increased consumption 

 resulting from renewed activity industrially, but on the 

 other hand we have need of years to digest the aug- 

 mented production both in Europe and all over the 

 rest of the world. We have an epoch of relatively in- 

 flated prices producing its effects in suddenly increas- 

 ed production. We have the chief consuming conn- 

 tries compromised in a policy of extensiv; production 

 for several years to come, irrespective of consumption 

 or the profitable nature of the enterprise. We have 

 an era of inflated" prices due to the emission of paper 

 money, war loans, etc., all of which tend to reduce 

 consumption, through enforced economies, to the ma- 

 jority of the population, and worst of all for exporting 

 countries like us we are threatened with a series of 

 years of unrest with dislocated transport, etc. This 

 last is the first thing that makes itself felt in trade, and 

 does more damage than all the rest put together, be- 

 cause in the case of cereals it means delays in transit^ 

 long periods between the harvesting on one part and 

 the consumption on the other, in which even with the 

 best of precautions the article suffers great deprecia- 

 tion or becomes non-consumable. 



Tranquillity is essential for trade, and doubly es- 

 sential for cereals the most difficult to handle of all 

 articles of commerce, the chief product of 'he farm- 

 er and, though his least perishable of all products-. 

 nevertheless the most susceptible of loss. 



