1»G 



DISCOVERY 



marine and overseas investments on the other, must 

 severely handicap a country which before the war 

 was primarily an industrial and commercial country. 

 Whilst a great expansion of German industrial and 

 commercial activity might prejudice certain of our 

 industries, the economic ruin of Germany would 

 probably prove equally or even more prejudicial to 

 our economic interests. Commerce is to the mutual 

 advantage of the different parties that participate 

 in it ; just as a big business firm docs not wish to 

 see its customers go bankrupt and its sources of supply 

 dry up, so this countrj', which is above all things a 

 trading country', stands to gain much more by develop- 

 ing its Continental trade than by restricting it. 



\Miere are we to find the remedies for the economic 

 ills from which we are suffering ? Undoubtedly, by 

 seeking to remove the causes which are leading to 

 the high prices. Some system of Government control 

 may possibly check high prices and profiteering ; but 

 it will certainly tend to aggravate scarcity, and thus 

 accentuate the most fundamental cause of all our 

 present economic woes. A much better answer, or 

 series of answers, to the question is supplied by the 

 Supreme Council of the Peace Conference, in their 

 recent declaration on the economic conditions of 

 the world (see daily papers, March lo). It is note- 

 worthy that the recommendations contained in this 

 memorandum are much more likely to rehabilitate 

 Europe than any provisions contained in the Treaty. 

 Scarcity, in conjunction with keen competition on 

 the part of Governments and the general pubUc to 

 secure the Umited supplies available, is the prime 

 cause of the high prices. The Supreme Council 

 consequently recommend reduction in expenditure 

 by Governments and individuals on the one hand, 

 and efforts to increase production on the other. With 

 these recommendations every economist will be in 

 agreement. To facilitate the increase in production, 

 the Supreme Council recommend the granting of 

 commercial credits to impoverished countries to 

 enable them to provision themselves with raw materials, 

 and they make a somewhat similar recommendation 

 with regard to help to Germany. One other point 

 on which the Council lay stress is the necessity for 

 an early deflation of credit and currency : payment 

 of current expenses out of current revenue, the cessa- 

 tion of borrowing, the substitution of long-dated for 

 short-dated and temporary loans, and the immediate 

 limitation and gradual curtailment of the note circu- 

 lation. These steps, if carried out, besides tending 

 directly to lower prices, should render the foreign 

 exchanges less unfavourable, and ultimately restore 

 them to the normal level. 



The Supreme Council appear to make no special 

 reference to the prevailing disorganisation of transport 



facilities on the Continent, or to the artificial barriers 

 to trade which various new countries, set up under 

 the Treaty, appear to be erecting against each other. 

 Efforts should undoubtedly also be made to overcome 

 these contributory causes of high prices. 



Whilst I have tried in this article briefly to examine 

 the problem of high prices primarily from the point 

 of view of this country, I trust that I have said sufficient 

 to show that for this purpose the United Kingdom 

 cannot be isolated from the Continent of Eurof)e. 

 Our economic recovery from the destruction and loss 

 caused by the war is undoubtedly dependent to a 

 considerable degree upon the economic recovery of 

 the Continental participants in the war. Anything 

 which either helps or impedes that recovery is there- 

 fore of immediate interest to us. Many of the troubles 

 are either direct or indirect consequences of the war ; 

 but some, it seems hardly possible to doubt, must be 

 attributed to the terms of the Peace Treaty. Mr. 

 Keynes's book provides a most valuable examination 

 of this side of the problem. I strongly advise the 

 reader to secure a copy and to study it for himself. 

 I would give him only one word of warning — had the 

 Treaty been as different as it could be from that 

 actually signed at Versailles, we should nevertheless 

 to-day be suffering from most, if not all, of our present 

 economic ills ; no Treaty, however wisely drawn up, 

 could \vipe out in a day, or even in a year or two, the 

 effects of five years' almost world-wide destruction. 

 Recovery must necessarily be slow. The real economic 

 question, so far as the Treaty is concerned, is whether 

 its terms are likely to prejudice or to facilitate the 

 economic recover}' of Europe. Mr. KejTies has no 

 hesitation in giving his answer to this question, and 

 I imagine that many of those who read the book will 

 accept his conclusions. 



Will Tuberculosis Die 

 Out? 



By Louis Cobbett, M.D., F.R.C.S. 



Lecturer in Palbology In the University 0/ Cambridge 



For some centuries leprosj' has been dying out in 

 Europe, and is now all but e.xtinct. It lingers only in 

 a few outlying, backward places, such as parts of 

 Norway, Russia, Spain, Portugal, Greece, and Turkey. 

 From the more progressive countries it has entirely 

 disappeared. From Great Britain it had practically 

 gone at the time of the Reformation ; the last indi- 

 genous case occurred, in the Shctlands, in 179S ; and 



