DISCOVERY 



239 



paragraphs, and the resulting distortion of fact is 

 only equalled in magnitude by the shameless extent 

 to which scientific or economic principles are ignored. 



Quite apart from the complexity of international 

 politics (which surely provide food enough for the most 

 insatiate literary appetite), since the Armistice we 

 have had a succession of Press " scares," some with 

 a foundation of fact, but most without any. The 

 varied aspects of the present shortage of many 

 of the necessary commodities of everyday life can 

 be attributed, reasonably enough, to one of the 

 more disagreeable legacies of the War ; but the 

 startling predictions of a world-famine in such vital 

 essentials as wheat, coal, water, and oil— to cite only 

 a few examples — require a somewhat closer scnitiny 

 of their bona fides than the prophets of these disasters 

 would be willing to admit. Articles of this kind, so 

 long as they are confined to the requirements of ad- 

 vertisement or enhanced sales, are harmless enough, 

 for the reader who allows himself to be influenced by 

 their purpose assuredly deserves all he gets. It is 

 only when they arc written with the calculated intent 

 of disturbing international relations that they assume 

 a dangerous character ; and in such circumstances, no 

 amount of comment and censure should be spared which 

 may proclaim or deny the validity of a particular case. 



In the present oil situation we have a cogent example 

 of Press propaganda of the very worst type, whose 

 ulterior object is not so much the creation of an alleged 

 oil famine scare, as the possibility of disturbing our 

 political and economic relations with other countries ; 

 in particular the United States. It will have been 

 apparent to those who follow carefully the happenings 

 in the oil world, that the present agitation for a definite 

 Imperial oil policy, to conserve our resources and 

 relieve the tension of possible famine, is but a cloak 

 to hide an attack on American tactics, rather than an 

 honest attempt to review a situation which may or 

 may not have arisen. Briefly, the arguments may 

 be summarised as follows. On the one hand, we are 

 told that the United States, knowing that we are very 

 largely dependent on her for the bulk of our oil-supply, 

 is adopting somewhat the attitude of a " profiteer " 

 in making us pay extremely high prices for a commodity 

 which she could easily afford to sell for less. Against 

 this, we in turn are accused of adopting a " dog-in- 

 the-manger " policy in other fields in which we are 

 interested, especially in Persia and Mesopotamia, 

 our aim being, it is alleged, the elimination of American 

 capital and interest in future developments in those 

 countries. And so as to bring the whole matter to 

 the point of ebulhtion, the " experts " responsible for 

 these indictments have dexterously juggled with 

 statistics in order to demonstrate a universal decrease 

 in oil output, an ever-increasing demand, and, in 



consequence, an ultimate famine in what has now 

 become a vital asset to modern civilised life. 



It is with the object of inquiring into the true state 

 of affairs that these paragraphs have been written ; 

 and, without endeavouring to solve any of the recondite 

 problems of British and foreign politics, it is proposed 

 to present the reader with a survey of the position of 

 our Imperial Oil Resources as it appeals to the petro- 

 leum technologist. This entails, among other things, 

 an inquiry into the nature and extent of those resources 

 and the possibilities of future development. If this 

 be achieved, it can safely be left to individual in- 

 telligence to decide how far a political and economical 

 impasse may or may not have been reached, and what 

 precisely are the probabilities of an oil famine in the 

 near or distant future. 



In order to appreciate the first disturbing clement 

 in the matter, it is necessary to gain some idea of the 

 present position of the oil resources of the United 

 States. Writing in 1916 on this subject, Arnold, in 

 the Anmial Report of the Smithsonian Institution, 

 adduced important statistical evidence show'ing that 

 the total consumption of oil in the United States per 

 year amounted approximately to 265,000,000 barrels. 

 After surveying the possibilities of further development 

 in the principal oilfields, he estimated the probable 

 future supply at about 5,763,100,000 barrels, from 

 which it is evident that in about twenty-two years 

 from that date the United States production of oil 

 would be exhausted. This is a somewhat pessimistic 

 view to take of the situation, and it would seem that 

 he has allowed the barest minimum of supply for 

 unprospected areas in Texas, Wyoming, and other 

 fields. If the bulk of the land to be prospected, not 

 only in the Mid-continent but in the Gulf, Rocky 

 Mountain, and other large fields, is only half as pro- 

 ductive as that already proven in those fields, then his 

 estimate of future supply falls short of the probable 

 one by several thousand million barrels. This makes 

 no allowance whatever for possible developments in 

 such States as Alabama and Mississippi, which are 

 regarded favourably in some quarters as potential 

 oil-producers. But even admitting Arnold's figures, 

 he himself states that the estimated supply would 

 probably " spread over a period of from fifty to 

 seventy-five years," mainly on account of the restricted 

 use of petroleum as a fuel, and the gradual rise in price 

 of a commodity of which the supply fails to satisfy 

 the demand. Further, that before the supply of 

 natural petroleum was exhausted, the Colorado, Utah, 

 and Californian oil shales w-ould be fully utilised, and 

 artificial substitutes would largely take the place of 

 petroleum as a fuel. From which it is seen that, while 

 there is no need for immediate alarm in connection 

 with the United States oil resources, there is every 



